Statistics Norway projects the population size and composition of Norwegian municipalities. This is one of Statistics Norway's ongoing tasks and is financed by the central government. Methodology and results are published on Statistics Norway's website.
Regional population projections are a key tool in local planning. They are also used in other types of economic and demographic projections and are of interest to public authorities, the private sector and the general public.
In the regional projection model, the population development is determined by demographic components: fertility, mortality and migration (domestic and international). Assumptions on how the components vary regionally and will develop in the future are used in a cohort-component model, which then provides the regional population pattern for each projected year.
The regional population projections model is under continuous development. This effort involves exploration of alternative methodology and empirical research on topics related to the projections. In 2019 a pilot project on using microsimulation for projection purposes was established. This is currently the main ongoing development project.
Publications
Leknes, S. og Løkken, S. A. (2022). Videreutvikling av modellen for regionale befolkningsframskrivinger.
Leknes, S. og Løkken, S. A. (2021). Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variation
Leknes, S. og Løkken, S. A. (2020). Befolkningsframskrivinger for kommunene, 2020-2050.
Leknes, S. og Løkken, S. A. (2020). Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic rates.
Carlsen, F. og Leknes, S. (2019). For whom are cities good places to live?.
Carlsen, F. og Leknes, S. (2019). The paradox of the unhappy, growing city: reconciling evidence.