New figures from the National Accounts show that the gross domestic product (GDP) for Mainland Norway remained unchanged between September and October.
– Fishing and wholesale and retail trade dampened activity, while parts of manufacturing and certain service industries contributed to an increase. In total, GDP remained broadly flat in October, says Head of National Accounts, Pål Sletten.
Monthly numbers fluctuate from month to month, and it is appropriate to assess their development over three-month periods. These figures show a growth of 1.1 per cent for Mainland GDP in Norway from May-July to August-October.
– If you assess the development of GDP Mainland Norway over three-month periods, the growth rate has been relatively high, says Pål Sletten.
Retail trade has been declining steadily throughout 2022. In addition, there was a decline in wholesale trade in October. In turn, wholesale and retail decreased GDP for Mainland Norway by 0.2 percent points.
– When assessed independently of wholesale and retail, service industries increased GDP Mainland Norway nearly 0.3 percentage points. Amongst others, there was growth in administrative and support service activities, ICT, and health services, says Pål Sletten.
Household consumption has increased the last few months. In October the increase is explained by higher consumption of goods and services, which was driven by leisure services, passenger transport, electricity and transportation. Transportation mainly consists of car purchases, which varies from month to month with deliveries from abroad.
Fishing declined GDP Mainland Norway with 0.2 percentage points in October. Value added in this industry fluctuates a lot over time and sometimes has significant effects on the monthly national accounts. Mackerel fishing, which usually takes place in October, took place in september this year.
The development in dwellings investments has been negative since April 2022, when assessed over three-month periods. The numbers show a decline of 2.8 per cent from May-July to August-October.
– Dwellings investments make up around 6 to 7 per cent of GDP Mainland Norway. The negative development we have seen the last months has contributed to a decline in GDP, says Pål Sletten.
Total GDP in current prices decreased with 8.3 per cent from September to October. It was lower prices on export goods, primarily oil and gas, that contributed to the decline. The reduced prices also weakened net exports, which continued its decline from record levels in the third quarter.
Industries
In total, value added increased by 0.1 percentage points in the market-facing service industries. The increase was broadly based among several industries, and no single industry stood out from the rest. Production of electricity was the most significant contributor. Wholesale and retail trade and fishing contributed to a decline in value added, and thereby dampened growth.
Manufacturing had a total increase of 0.9 per cent. Here oil refining, chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing had the largest impact, with an increase of 6.4 per cent. Production of metals, electrical equipment and machinery also contributed to the growth, with an increase of 1.4 per cent.
The volume of other goods decreased 1.8 per cent in October. Agriculture, forestry, and construction decreased somewhat, while fishing and aquaculture had a larger decline of 14.4 per cent. The latter industry typically fluctuates from month to month, and the October change is within normal boundaries.
Value added in general government increased 0.2 per cent. Activity in central government increased 0.9 per cent, while local government decreased 0.4 per cent. Care services was the largest contributor to the decrease in local government.
Petroleum activities and ocean transport decreased 8.2 per cent, primarily due to lower natural gas prices. This occurred after three months of volume growth. Consequently, overall GDP decreased 1 per cent.
Consumption
Household consumption increased 1.6 per cent from September to October. Consumption of goods increased 0.7 per cent, largely due to growth in the consumption of transports, electricity, and alcohol-free beverages.
Consumption of goods is still at a high level compared to the period before the pandemic. Consumption of services rose 0.6 per cent, driven by an increase in the consumption of recreation services, health services and passenger transport.
Norwegians’ consumption abroad has had a strong uptick the last months. In October consumption abroad increased 13 per cent. Foreigners’ consumption in Norway increased 1.5 per cent.
Consumption in general government increased 0.5 per cent. Consumption in central government increased 1.4 per cent, while in local government consumption decreased 0.5 per cent.
Export and import
In October exports decreased 5 per cent, measured in fixed prices. Exports of traditional goods, as well as crude oil and natural gas, contributed most to the decline. Measured in current prices total exports increased 14.9 per cent from October 2021.
Measured in fixed prices imports increased 1.5 per cent. Increased imports of traditional goods and services contributed most to the increase. Measured in current prices imports increased 32.3 per cent compared to last year.
Investments
Gross fixed capital formation decreased 4.2 per cent in October. The rolling three-month growth shows a small increase of 0.1 per cent from May-July to August-October. After an increase of 1.8 per cent in September, investments in dwelling services continued to rise by 0.5 per cent in October. The rolling three-month decline was 2.8 per cent.
For gross fixed capital formation, there is low availability of monthly information. For petroleum investments, investments in manufacturing, mining and power supply, information on planned investments is used as reported by the companies.
Revisions
In connection with new monthly and quarterly figures, retroactive revisions might occur. The statistics used will not normally change backwards, but seasonally adjusted series can still be affected. This is because the basis for the seasonal adjustment changes when new periods are added.
Throughout the corona pandemic, from March 2020 to March 2022, new figures were treated as extreme values, and were not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. The many changes in national accounts figures since February 2020 means that new periods that are now added in the seasonal adjustment, from and including April 2022, can produce larger revisions than normal in the seasonal pattern.
In some areas, new datapoints for previous months have been incorporated. The macro picture is nevertheless still as previously published.
In connection with the publication of the quarterly National Accounts for the 3rd quarter, Statistics Norway will publish the final National Accounts figures for 2020 on 18 November 2022. In addition to providing a more complete picture of the first year of the pandemic, certain revisions will be incorporated in National Accounts figures for previous years. The final national accounts for 2020 replaces the preliminary national accounts for 2020. While the latter is a projection based on indicators from the last published final annual accounts (2019), the final national accounts are based on much more detailed data sources. Particularly important is the business statements from enterprises, which provides a basis for more precise calculations of the gross product in the various industries. We will thus learn more about how the Norwegian economy fared in the first year of the pandemic. In conjunction with the publication of the final figures for 2020, certain quality improvements are also carried out. These changes are also incorporated for previous years to avoid breaks in the time series. The most significant revisions for previous years are: Improvements in the calculations of free banking services, so-called FISIM (Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured). New data source and guidelines for production processes across national borders, where goods pass national borders without a change of ownership (processing) and income related to the purchase and sale of goods abroad (intermediary trade). New calculation scheme for the central bank's activity. The revisions are not expected to have a major impact on Norwegian GDP overall, but could affect the value added of individual industries, the composition of access to and use of Norwegian goods and services, and operating profit and wage cost shares in individual industries.