Chapter 1 outlines the rules, stating that individuals with long careers in physically demanding jobs will receive a pension supplement. Eligibility criteria include a minimum pensionable income of 1 G in the year prior to claiming and an upper income limit for qualification. Chapter 2 details the MOSART model that we utilise for the analysis, which accounts for demographic trends, labour market behaviour, and social security history.
Chapter 3 presents key findings. The direct cost of the toiler pension is estimated to increase pension expenditure by approximately NOK 0.8 billion annually by 2060 and around 1.8 billion in a scenario where individuals refrain from engaging in labour market activities resulting in the loss of the toiler pension. Stronger behavioural changes, such as workers retiring earlier than planned, could significantly raise costs.
Chapter 4 explores an alternative approach where the toiler pension supplement is not linked to a fixed age but rather to the age at which an individual qualifies for retirement. This alternative better includes low-income workers and those with disrupted careers—groups with the greatest need for support. The model predicts that this will increase the number of recipients from 100,000 to 190,000 by 2060, with costs rising to NOK 3.4 billion. However, this ensures a more inclusive system that reaches vulnerable workers who would otherwise be excluded.
Chapter 5 concludes that while a toiler pension supplement could be a well-targeted social policy reform, its design has major budgetary implications. The alternative qualification method improves targeting but significantly increases costs.