The aim is to provide insight into the extent of dropouts and transfers in higher education. The report follows the 2012 cohort and investigates characteristics of the students who either drop out or transfer to another study program or institution. The report sheds light on sectoral dropouts, which means absence from higher education for a year or more, and transfers, which means a change of study program or institution.
The report shows that every fourth student who started a degree program in 2012 had a sectoral dropout. Half of these students dropped out during the first year of study. After the second year, 70 per cent of the total sectoral dropout had occurred. There were higher dropout rates among students in bachelor's programs (25 per cent) and 2-year master's programs (40 per cent), and lower dropout rates among students enrolled in long national master's programs (16 per cent). Sectoral dropouts were most prevalent among older students. Among students 30 years or older, 38 per cent dropped out, while the corresponding proportion was 20 per cent among students younger than 22 years old.
Less than 1 per cent returned and completed the degree they originally enrolled in after having had an absence from higher education for at least one year. It shows that sectoral dropouts from higher education, in most cases, mean that students do not return and complete the degree they withdrew from. However, a significant proportion (26 per cent) who enrolled in a new degree program completed this. For this group, an absence from higher education for a year or more therefore did not mean a permanent sectoral dropout. The majority (73 per cent) did not obtain a degree at a later stage. Among these, 38 per cent dropped out of higher education and never returned, while 27 per cent returned to higher education but had a new dropout, and thus did not complete the new degree. A smaller proportion (2.8 per cent) completed a higher vocational education.
Students who dropped out at a later point in their studies were more often found to be in employment. Just under 29 per cent of the students who had a sectoral dropout during the first year of study were in full-time work as of the 4th quarter of the following year. This applied to 39 per cent of students who dropped out after the 5th year of study and 49 per cent of those who dropped out during or after the 6th year of study.
1 in 5 students transferred to another institution or study program. Most students transferred during their first year of study, and after the second year of study about 90 per cent of the transfers that occurred had taken place. Transfers occurred mostly among the youngest students. Among students older than 30 years in 2012, 8 per cent transferred to another institution or study program, while the corresponding proportion was 24 per cent for students younger than 22 years old.
Withdrawal behaviour varied across social background and grades from upper secondary school for sectoral dropout but had little to say for whether students transferred to another study program or institution. Students with parents with a university degree and a higher grades from upper secondary school had a lower probability of dropping out compared to students with parents with no university degree and lower grades from upper secondary school. The report did not find a similar connection for transfer students but point to the contrary, that transfers of study programs or institutions occurred more often among the most resourceful students.