Cross border trade

A trip is defined as a stay outside the ordinary place of residence irrespective of the purpose of the stay.

Region of residence . The respondents are grouped by county and region of residence.

Spending is defined as the total expenditure for a visitor or on behalf of a visitor prior to or during the trip. The spending is inclusive of VAT and other taxes.

All legal goods and services are included. Services include varies types of services, such as hairdressing, dental services, service on cars etc.

Food and drink purchased abroad and consumed during the trip are included. Gas and engine fuel purchased abroad and used on the trip (both in Norway and abroad) are also included. Gas and fuel purchased in Norway, but consumed abroad are not included.

Purchases of cars and other goods which require duty clearance are included. Such goods must be listed separately in order to avoid double recording. Such goods are also included in Statistics Norway's external trade in goods statistics.

Destination . Foreign destinations are grouped by country and destination.

Product groups . The purchased goods on the trip are in 2009 divided in 8 product groups, food, mineral water. wine, beer, liquor, tobaco, other goods and also services.

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Name: Cross border trade
Topic: Wholesale and retail trade and service activities

Division for Business Cycle Statistics

Until 2nd quarter 2008: National and regional level.

From 3rd quarter 2008: National level.

Quarterly, published eight weeks after the reference quarter

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Statistics Norway's travel survey (which covers overnight trips abroad) and survey on cross border trade (which covers day trips abroad) give a total overwiev of the size of Norwegian households' foreign transactions, which is an important input into the statistics on foreign trade.

The statistics on cross border trade were established in 2004 and replaced Bank of Norway’s foreign currency statistics, which were discontinued as of 2005.

The statistics are used by public authorities, trade organisations and others. In Statistics Norway, the statistics are used by the Division for National Accounts in its balance of payments statistics.

No external users have access to the statistics and analyses before they are published and accessible simultaneously for all users on ssb.no at 8 am. Prior to this, a minimum of three months' advance notice is given inthe Statistics Release Calendar. This is one of Statistics Norway’s key principles for ensuring that all users are treated equally.

The data on cross border trade and the travel survey data give the total spending figures for Norwegian household spending abroad. These figures are used as input into Statistics Norway's balance of payments statistics.

The Statistics Act § 2-1 (voluntary)

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The statistics cover a sample of the Norwegian population in the age group 16-79 years and their day trips and spending abroad.

The Population Register.

The cross border trade survey is carried out among 2 000 Norwegians aged 16-79 years.

Telephone interview/CATI.

Report for the fourth quarter of 2004 (in Norwegian only) http://www.ssb.no/emner/00/90/omnibus/notat_200521/notat_200521.pdf

A computer is used during the interview. The interviewer reads the questions aloud from the screen and the answers are registered right away. This allows the data to be controlled immediately, and it reduces the risk of asking the wrong questions.

The survey covers the amount of travel in the quarter, while the details of the day trips are only covered by the last month of the reference quarter. The data represent the entire Norwegian population in the age group 16-79 years. In order to calculate totals, the data are grouped by seven regions. The regions are Oslo and Akershus, Hedmark and Oppland, South-Eastern Norway, Agder and Rogaland, Western Norway, Trøndelag and Northern-Norway.

South-Eastern Norway consist of Østfold, Buskerud, Vestfold and Telemark counties. Western Norway consist of Hordaland, Sogn og Fjordane and Møre og Romsdal counties, while Northern-Norway consist of Nordland, Troms and Finnmark counties.

Variables such as the number of trips and expenditure are multiplied by a factor equal to the population in the relevant strata divided by the number of respondents in the same strata.

The estimates from month to quarter are based on the precondition that the trips' average expenditure in the last month also represent the expenditure on trips in the first two months of the quarter. The same assumption is made for the destination of the trips.

Estimates are produced for each respondent, and the respondents are divided into four groups:

Group 1 consists of respondents who went on a day trip abroad in the last month of the quarter and went on similar trips in the first two months of the quarter. It is assumed that these trips have the same average expenditure for all three months.

Group 2 consists of respondents who only went on day trips abroad in the last month of the quarter. The expenditure in the last month is set as the expenditure for the whole quarter.

Group 3 consists of respondents who only went on day trips during the first part of the quarter. We only have information about the total number of trips in the quarter for these respondents, not for the expenditure. Estimates from month to quarter for this group are based on information from group 1 and 2.

An average expenditure per trip is estimated for the seven strata mentioned below for the respondents in group 1 and 2. For every respondent in group 3, a total expenditure for the whole quarter is estimated, equal to the strata's average expenditure per trip multiplied by the respondent's number of trips in the entire quarter.

Group 4 consists of respondents who have not been on any day trips in the first part of the quarter or in the last month of the quarter. For these respondents there is no need for further calculations.

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The cross border trade statistics were first published in October 2005 with figures from the first quarter of 2004 to the second second quarter of 2005. These figures were incorrect and revised figures are published.

Collection errors, for instance when the respondent gives incorrect information, or processing errors, for instance when the interviewer registers the answer incorrectly, are kept to a minimum by the use of automatic controls of the answers during the interview. Nevertheless, there may still be some errors. The number and kind of errors are not known.

Enhetsfrafallet er på om lag 30-35 prosent. Produksjonsmetoden er slik at vi ikke har noen grunn til å tro at det foreligger systematiske skjevheter pga. frafallet i resultatet.

Det partielle frafallet, det vil si at intervjuobjektet har unnlatt å svare på minst ett av spørsmålene i undersøkelsen, er minimalt.

Resultatene fra undersøkelsen bygger kun på svar fra de personer som besvarte spørsmålene (nettoutvalget). Frafallet skyldes hovedsakelig at intervjuobjektet nektet å svare eller ikke var å treffe. Vi kjenner ikke til om de som ikke var å treffe, var på reise eller hadde andre grunner for ikke å delta. Om grunnen var at de var på reise, vil fordelingen for denne variabelen være annerledes blant de som svarte (nettoutvalget) enn blant de som ble forsøkt intervjuet (bruttoutvalget). I slike tilfeller oppstår utvalgsskjevhet. Utvalgsskjevhet i forhold til en variabel medfører ikke nødvendigvis at nettoutvalget er skjevt i forhold til andre variabler.

Non-response errors are caused by unit non-response, i.e. the unit (for instance an individual or a company) has failed to respond, or item non response, i.e. the unit has failed to respond to some but not all the questions in the survey.

The results are based on information from a sample of the population. As a result, the figures are uncertain and the amount of uncertainty can be calculated.

To illustrate the uncertainty, we can use an interval to determine the true value of the total spending on cross border trade in the second quarter of 2006 (the total spending with a full count). Such intervals are called confidence intervals when they are constructed in a particular way.

Let H be the estimated spending and let V be an estimate of H's variation coefficient. The confidence interval is the interval that borders on the lower limit (H-2 V) and the upper limit (H+2 V). With this method we can be 95 per cent sure that the true value for the whole population lies within these two values. The interval is between 7.9 and 9.6 billions. There is a 95 per cent certainty that the true value of the spending is within the interval 7.9 and 9.6 billions.

Further information on day trips in the first two months of the quarter is not collected, only the number of trips. The size of the shopping spending for the trips must be calculated, see 3.6. The calculations are based on information from trips taken during the last month. There is some uncertainty connected with these figures. The level of uncertainty is not known.

After publication of quarterly figures for Cross Border Trade for Norwegian households for the period 1st quarter 2004 to 2nd quarter 2005, Statistics Norway was in doubt if the interview objects, IO, have understood the question about expenses correctly. An extensive analyse of data and an improvement of the way the question was asked, our suspicion was confirmed. A family of more than one adult travelling together, has in some cases incorrectly reported all the purchased goods and services of the household, in stead of the goods and services the IO itself has paid for.

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