Content
Published:
This is an archived release.
Labour force still high
The labour force increased by 7 000 persons from June to September this year according to seasonally adjusted figures from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). There was an increase both in the numbers of employed and the number of unemployed persons. In September there were around 10 000 more unemployed persons than in the autumn of 1998.
Since the 4th quarter of 1999, the labour force participation has been fairly stable at a historical high level.
Seasonally adjusted figures indicate a decline of 9 000 man-weeks worked from June to September this year.
The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to give figures of changes for the last three months and to describe the development during the last year. Please use the unadjusted figures from the LFS in order to get figures of level.
Method
The series are made by seasonally adjusting monthly figures from the LFS. The levels are then corrected to make the yearly averages of the seasonally adjusted figures equal to corresponding unadjusted figures from the LFS.
In order to reduce uncertainty the presented series are three months moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. The figure from September is the average of the estimates from August - October.
Previous to the seasonal adjustment, adjustments are made for changes in the survey sample plan, the way the questions are being asked and for the method of estimation. We also make adjustments for holidays that fall in random months every year.
Uncertainty
Quality tests from our seasonal adjustment program X12-ARIMA show that the unemployment figures are very uncertain. This may have some connection to the fact that some of the calendar-effects already are adjusted for. However, the main problem is probably that the random component is larger than then seasonal component. In addition there are only a few unemployed persons, which makes the uncertainty considerable. The figures should be used with caution.
The statistics is published with Labour force survey.
Contact
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Arbeidsmarked og lønn
E-mail: arbeidsmarked@ssb.no
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Erik Herstad Horgen
E-mail: erik.horgen@ssb.no
tel.: (+47) 93 08 68 62