Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, June 2003

Norwegian unemployment has gradually increased since the autumn 1999, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the LFS. From the 3-month period February-April to May-July 2003 total unemployment increased by 7,000 persons. In per cent of the labour force the number of unemployed persons increased by 0.3 percentage points, which is outside the error margins. Seasonally adjusted figures for registered unemployed persons at the Employment Offices also increased the last 3-month period.

After a period of strong growth, employment has shown a slight increase from 1999, but in 2002 the number of employed persons started to fall. From the 3-month period February-April to May-July 2003 the number of employed persons decreased by 5, 000. The change is within the margin of errors.

Increased unemployment also in the EU and the OECD

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Norway increased from 4.3 to 4.6 per cent between March and June 2003. In the same period the unemployment increased from 8.0 to 8.1 per cent as an average in the EU countries. The unemployment rate in the OECDcountries as a whole went up from 7.0 to 7.3 per cent. In June 2003 the unemployment rate amounted to 6.4 in the USA, 0.6 percentage point higher than in March 2003. The unemployment rate in Sweden increased from 5.3 per cent in March to 5.4 per cent in June 2003, and from 9.1 to 9.3 per cent in Finland. In the same period unemployment increased both in France and Germany. This is according to figures from the OECD and Eurostat .

Man-weeks worked have shown a decreasing trend since the autumn 1999. The last 3 month period man-weeks worked decreased by 9, 000, which is inside the margin of errors.

About the man-weeks estimates

Prior to 1996 there was only one survey week each month in the Norwegian LFS. In July in the reference year 1991 the survey week was the third week of the month, when the proportion on holiday was high. The proportion of the population on holiday in July the years after 1995, when all weeks were surveyed, was a little lower compared with July 1991. Due to this July has had too few leave substitutes since 1996. The employment figures for July this year were therefore adjusted upwards by 22. 600 before seasonal adjustment. For July last year this adjustment upwards was 24, 000 leave substitutes.

Uncertainty

Quality tests show that the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment figures are uncertain. The seasonal-adjustment method has problems identifying a stable seasonal pattern for this series. The random component is relatively large compared with the seasonal component. The figures should therefore be used with caution.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to describe the development during the last year and to give figures for change between the last two 3month periods, cleared for normal seasonal variations. In order to reduce uncertainty, the series are three months moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance - the figures for June is the average of the estimates from May, June and July.

Tables:

• Table 1. Employment and unemployment for persons aged 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. Absolute figures in 1000 and unemployed persons in per cent of the labour force.