Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, February 2004

The last figure for February (the January-March period) shows that unemployment decreased by 3 000 people from the previous month (December-February), which is inside the error margin. The development is still confirming the downward trend we have seen in unemployment since June (May-July) last year. Seasonally adjusted figures of registered unemployment at job centres stayed flat from January to February.

The summer of 2003 saw an increase in employment after a longer period of decline. During the last months the increase has been levelling out. In February this year the number of employees increased by 2 000 from the previous month, which is inside the error margin.

Unemployment up in Sweden

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Norway was 4.3 per cent in February 2004, compared with 4.6 per cent in November 2003. EU unemployment remained flat at 8.0 per cent, while the unemployment rate in OECD countries fell from 7.0 to 6.9 per cent. The USA saw unemployment fall by 0.3 percentage points to 5.6 per cent from November to February, while Sweden experienced unemployment growth from 6.0 to 6.4 per cent. In Finland unemployment remained unchanged at 8.9 per cent. This was more or less the case also in Germany and France, according to figures from the OECD and Eurostat .

Man-weeks worked have shown a downward trend since the summer of 1998. From November to February man-weeks worked fell by 32 000, which is clearly outside the error margin. Some of the decline is attributable to an extra large amount of employees taking time off work around New Year's Day, which affects the February figure (the January-March period).

Uncertain figures

Quality tests show that the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment figures are uncertain. The seasonal-adjustment method has problems identifying a stable seasonal pattern for this series. The random component is relatively large compared with the seasonal component. The figures should therefore be treated with caution.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to describe the development during the last year and to provide figures of change between the last two three-month periods, cleared for normal seasonal variations. In order to reduce uncertainty, the presented series are three-month moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance, the figures for February are the average of the estimates for January, February and March.

Tables:

• Table 1. Employment and unemployment for persons aged 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. Absolute figures in 1000 and unemployed persons in per cent of the labour force.