Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, October 2004

Following a period of decline from the spring of 2002, employment started to increase in the summer of 2003. Over the period towards October (the September-November period) 2004, the total increase amounted to 25 000 people. When compared to July (June-August) 2004, the number of employees rose by 10 000, which is inside the error margin of the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Employment still appears to be in an upward trend, and continues to close in on the record level measured in the spring of 2002.

The latest figure for October shows no change in unemployment from the previous month. Compared with October 2003, there has only been a minor decline in unemployment, and so the figures appear to be on a stable level. Seasonally adjusted figures of registered unemployment at job centres plus government measures to promote employment have shown a small decline over the last year (October 2003 - October 2004).

Small changes in international figures

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Norway was 4.4 per cent in October 2004, compared with 4.5 per cent in July. In the same period, unemployment in the EU and OECD area stayed approximately unchanged at 8.0 and 6.8 per cent respectively. In October, unemployment stood at 5.5 per cent in the USA, unchanged from July. Unemployment remained flat in Sweden too, at 6.3 per cent, while it went down from 8.9 to 8.7 per cent in Finland. In France and Germany unemployment stayed approximately unchanged at 9.5 and 9.9 per cent respectively, according to figures from the OECD and Eurostat .

Man-weeks worked have shown a downward trend between June 1998 and May 2003. Since then, however, there have been signs of an increasing trend in these figures. From July to October 2004, man-weeks worked went up by 3 000, which is clearly inside the LFS error margin.

Uncertain figures

Quality tests show that the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment figures are uncertain. The seasonal-adjustment method has problems identifying a stable seasonal pattern for this series. The random component is relatively large compared with the seasonal component. The figures should therefore be treated with caution.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to describe the development over the last year and provide figures of change between the last two three-month periods, corrected for normal seasonal variations. In order to reduce uncertainty, the published series are three-month moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance, the figures for October represent the average of the estimates for September, October and November.

Tables:

• Table 1. Employment and unemployment for persons aged 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. Absolute figures in 1000 and unemployed persons in per cent of the labour force.