Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, January 2005

The number of unemployed for January (the December-February period) was unchanged from October (September-November) last year. Seasonally adjusted figures of registered unemployment at job centres plus government measures to promote employment fell some in the same period (from October to January).

Following a period of negative development from the spring of 2002 to the summer of 2003, employment has ever since shown a more or less continuous rise. From October 2004 to January 2005, the number of employees rose by 2 000, which is clearly inside the error margin of the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Employment still appears to be in an upward trend.

Unemployment down in the USA and OECD area

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Norway was 4.4 per cent in January, unchanged from October last year. The rate stayed unchanged in the EU area too, at 8.0 per cent. In the same period, unemployment in the OECD area went down from 6.8 to 6.6 per cent, and in the USA from 5.5 to 5.2 per cent. From October 2004 to January 2005, the unemployment rate fell from 6.2 to 6.1 per cent in Sweden, while Finland had an increase from 8.8 to 8.9 per cent. In the same period, the figures for France and Germany stayed approximately unchanged at 9.7 and 9.6 per cent respectively, according to figures from the OECD and Eurostat .

Man-weeks worked showed a downward trend between June 1998 and May 2003. Since then, the figures have been relatively stable. From October 2004 to January 2005, man-weeks worked went up by 39 000, which is clearly outside the LFS error margin. However, all or some of the increase is attributable to the small number of days off in connection with the Christmas holidays in 2004, which affects the January figure (the December-February period).

Uncertain figures

Quality tests show that the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment figures are uncertain. The seasonal-adjustment method has problems identifying a stable seasonal pattern for this series. The random component is relatively large compared with the seasonal component. The figures should therefore be treated with caution.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to describe the development over the last year and provide figures of change between the last two three-month periods, corrected for normal seasonal variations. In order to reduce uncertainty, the published series are three-month moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance, the figures for January represent the average of the estimates for December, January and February.

Tables:

• Table 1. Employment and unemployment for persons aged 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. Absolute figures in 1000 and unemployed persons in per cent of the labour force.