Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, March 2005

The number of unemployed for March (the February-April period) went up by 6 000 from December last year (November-January), which is just outside the error margin of the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Seasonally adjusted figures of registered unemployment at job centres plus government measures to promote employment showed a small decline in the same period (from December to March).

Following a period of negative development from the spring of 2002 to the summer of 2003, employment has ever since shown a more or less continuous rise. From December 2004 to March 2005, the number of employees went down by 8 000, but this is inside the LFS error margin. Employment now appears to be holding a stable level.

Unemployment down in the USA

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Norway was 4.6 per cent in March 2005, compared with 4.4 per cent in December 2004. The rate stayed approximately unchanged in the EU and OECD area, at 8.1 and 6.7 per cent respectively. In the same period, unemployment went down from 5.4 to 5.2 per cent in the USA, from 6.4 to 6.3 per cent in Sweden, and from 8.8 to 8.3 per cent in Finland. From December 2004 to March 2005, the rate for France increased from 9.7 to 9.8 per cent, and in Germany from 9.5 to 9.8 per cent, according to figures from the OECD and Eurostat .

Man-weeks worked showed a downward trend between June 1998 and May 2003. Since then, we have seen signs of an increasing trend in these figures. From December 2004 to March 2005, man-weeks worked went down by 14 000, but this is inside the LFS error margin. In addition, the decline must be seen in association with the small number of extra days off in connection with the Christmas holidays in 2004, which lead to an extraordinary high level of man-weeks worked in December.

Uncertain figures

Quality tests show that the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment figures are uncertain. The seasonal-adjustment method has problems identifying a stable seasonal pattern for this series. The random component is relatively large compared with the seasonal component. The figures should therefore be treated with caution.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to describe the development over the last year and provide figures of change between the last two three-month periods, corrected for normal seasonal variations. In order to reduce uncertainty, the published series are three-month moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance, the figures for March represent the average of the estimates for February, March and April.

Tables:

• Table 1. Employment and unemployment for persons aged 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. Absolute figures in 1000 and unemployed persons in per cent of the labour force.