Labour force survey, seasonally-adjusted figures, July 2005

Although the increase is within the LFS error margin, the new figures confirm the upward trend that has been seen since the summer of 2003.

Unemployment in July (the June-August period) rose from April (March-May). However, the increase is within the LFS error margin. Following the growth in unemployment from 2004 to the beginning of 2005, unemployment has not changed much in the current period, according to the LFS. Seasonally adjusted figures of registered unemployment at job centres show a decline of 2 000 people.

Fall in unemployment internationally

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Norway was 4.8 per cent in July 2005, up from 4.7 per cent in April. The unemployment rate in the EU area fell from 8.0 to 7.9 per cent, while the OECD area saw the rate fall from 6.6 to 6.5 per cent. In the same period, the unemployment rate fell from 5.2 to 5.0 per cent in the USA, from 8.4 to 8.3 per cent in Finland, and from 9.9 to 9.3 per cent in Germany. In France, unemployment stayed unchanged at 9.7 per cent, according to figures from the OECD and Eurostat .

From April to July, man-weeks worked fell by 68 000, which is clearly outside the LFS error margin. The decline must be seen in connection with the strong increase in the number of people on vacation leave in the summer months (June, July and August) this year compared with 2004 (and 2003). The increase is particularly strong in July and August. One would expect that the total level of vacation leave in the summer months was similar to the previous year, but the LFS figures indicate a change in the vacation pattern. As a result, the seasonal-adjustment method is not fully able to measure the trend in man-weeks worked at the moment.

Uncertain figures

Quality tests show that the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment figures are uncertain. The seasonal-adjustment method has problems identifying a stable seasonal pattern for this series. The random component is relatively large compared with the seasonal component. The figures should therefore be treated with caution.

The purpose of adjusting for seasonal variations is to describe the development over the last year and provide figures of change between the last two three-month periods, corrected for normal seasonal variations. In order to reduce uncertainty, the published series are three-month moving averages of the seasonally adjusted figures. For instance, the figures for July represent the average of the estimates for June, July and August.

Tables:

• Table 1. Employment and unemployment for persons aged 16-74 years, seasonally adjusted, three-months moving average. Absolute figures in 1000 and unemployed persons in per cent of the labour force.