Centralization of the population is expected to continue, but has been slowed by a more decentralized immigration pattern recently. The aging of the population also persists, in line with increasing life expectancy, especially in rural areas and municipalities with declining populations. These are the broad trends from this year’s projection results.
From 2024 to 2050, the population in Norway is expected to grow by 10 percent. Growth is anticipated in all parts of the country and counties, except for Nordland, which is projected to experience a modest decline of one percent. The strongest growth is expected in Eastern Norway. By 2050, 226 of the country’s 357 municipalities are expected to grow. Thus, a majority of 63 percent of municipalities is expected to experience growth, while 37 percent are expected to have stable or declining populations.
The main scenario of the projection shows that the centralization of the population continues, with the most central and often most populous municipalities experiencing the highest percentage growth. In terms of numbers, the largest urban municipalities will grow the most. Oslo tops the list with an increase of 100,000 people by 2050. The projections also show strong growth in many suburban municipalities around the major cities. Conversely, many of the least central municipalities are expected to see population declines.
The aging of the population is a trend observed across all municipalities, but it is particularly pronounced in rural municipalities and those with expected population declines. By 2050, the most central municipalities are expected to have a 16 percent of their population aged 70 and older, while for the least central municipalities, this share is expected to reach one-quarter.
The starting point for the projections is the population of each municipality as of January 1, 2024, categorized by gender and age, along with assumptions about how local fertility, mortality, internal migration, immigration, and emigration will develop in the future. Projection results are uncertain. Due to the systematic nature of population development, we know a lot about municipal populations in the short term—most of us will be one year older next year and live in the same municipality. In the longer term, we rely more on demographic assumptions to project the population.
The projection model is a simplification of reality. We therefore recommend users to familiarize themselves with how the model works and actively engage with the results. Assess whether the assumptions seem reasonable given your own knowledge of local conditions, and adjust the figures accordingly. To assist in such assessments, Statistics Norway publishes a guiding article on how to use projections and supporting tables on assumptions in the StatBank.