Population projections

The backdrop for this year’s population projections for Norwegian municipalities is substantial immigration, particularly from Ukraine. In the main scenario, the projections show especially strong  population growth in the short term, but also growth in the longer term.

The 2024 national population projections show a declining rate of population growth, strong population ageing, and a larger, more established, and older immigrant population. According to the main alternative, the Norwegian population will increase from around 5.55 million today to 6 million in 2040 and above 6.2 million in 2100.

Population projections are predominantly made using the cohort-component method (CCM). The opportunities for further development within that framework are limited. Lately, with advances in technical and computational capacity, the microsimulation framework has become a serious contender.

We present a probabilistic forecast for the immigrant population of Norway and their Norwegian-born children (“second generation”) broken down by age, sex, and three types of country background: 1. West European countries plus the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; 2. East European countries that are members of the European Union; 3. other countries.

The 2022 national population projections show lower population growth combined with stronger ageing. Nevertheless, there will still be population growth in Norway throughout the century, with the main alternative projecting an increase from around 5.4 million today, to 6.1 million in 2060 and 6.2 million in 2100.

Population growth in central areas and strong aging in rural areas are the main results of the 2022 projections for the Norwegian municipalities. These are long-lasting trends of Norway’s demography that the model also projects into the future.

In the years ahead, lower population growth and an increasingly older population will characterise the population development in Norway. In less than 30 years, more people will die than are born each year, which means that immigration alone will ensure that the population continues to grow.