Statistikk innhold
Statistics about
National population projections
National population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration.
Updated: 5 June 2024
Next update: Not yet determined
Selected figures from this statistics
- Projected population figures 2024-2100Download table as ...Projected population figures 2024-2100
2024 2030 2050 2075 2100 Population (main alternative, MMM) 5 550 203 5 749 712 6 146 321 6 272 590 6 243 256 Population (low alternative, LLL) 5 550 203 5 608 599 5 411 859 4 646 670 3 656 408 Population (high alternative, HHH) 5 550 203 5 883 155 6 857 366 8 131 580 9 624 982 Net migration (main alternative, MMM) 41 093 16 482 13 275 12 760 13 195 Net migration (low alternative, MML) 18 554 9 057 4 704 3 109 1 355 Net migration (high alternative, MMH) 58 879 23 742 28 136 33 579 38 294 Fertility (main alternative, MMM) 1.42 1.57 1.66 1.66 1.66 Fertility (low alternative, LMM) 1.35 1.22 1.21 1.22 1.22 Fertility (high alternative, HMM) 1.48 1.86 1.91 1.91 1.91 Life expectancy (main alternative, MMM) 83.3 84.3 87.4 90.4 92.8 Life expectancy (low alternative, MLM) 83.0 83.5 85.4 87.5 89.2 Life expectancy (high alternative, MHM) 83.6 85.2 89.2 93.2 96.3 Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Total population January 1. Registered 2022 and projected in three alternativesDownload table as ...Total population January 1. Registered 2022 and projected in three alternatives
Registered 20241 Projected alternative2 Main alternative (MMM) Low national growth (LLL) High national growth (HHH) Population 5 550 203 2030 5 749 712 5 608 599 5 883 155 2050 6 146 321 5 411 859 6 857 366 2075 6 272 590 4 646 670 8 131 580 2100 6 243 256 3 656 408 9 624 982 1Total population registered per January 1 2024. 2Refers to high and low national growth alternatives. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - FertilityDownload table as ...Fertility
Registered 2023 Projected alternative Main alternative (MMM) Low fertility (LMM) High fertility (HMM) Total fertility rate 1.40 2030 1.57 1.22 1.86 2050 1.66 1.21 1.91 2075 1.66 1.22 1.91 2100 1.66 1.22 1.91 Live births 51 980 2030 58 299 45 311 69 257 2050 56 335 40 568 65 355 2075 56 422 32 948 72 216 2100 54 742 27 995 76 054 Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Life expectancyDownload table as ...Life expectancy
Registered 2023 Projected alternative1 Medium life expectancy Low life expectancy High life expectancy Life expectancy at birth men 81.39 2030 82.8 81.6 83.9 2050 86.0 83.3 88.4 2075 89.3 85.4 92.8 2100 92.1 87.3 96.3 Life expectancy at birth women 84.63 2030 85.6 84.6 86.7 2050 88.3 85.9 90.5 2075 91.1 87.6 94.3 2100 93.4 89.0 97.3 Deaths 43 803 2030 47 772 51 733 43 975 2050 60 255 65 756 55 360 2075 65 868 70 188 62 324 2100 68 969 70 856 67 636 1Refers to high and low life expectancy alternatives. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Immigration and emigrationDownload table as ...Immigration and emigration
Registered 2023 Projected alternative1 2 Main alternative (MMM) Low immigration (MML) High immigration (MMH) Immigration 86 589 2030 49 167 39 114 59 054 2050 44 208 30 009 66 358 2075 40 580 21 909 77 077 2100 39 484 15 214 87 934 Emigration 34 011 2030 32 685 30 057 35 312 2050 30 933 25 305 38 222 2075 27 820 18 800 43 497 2100 26 290 13 859 49 640 Net migration 52 578 2030 16 482 9 057 23 742 2050 13 275 4 704 28 136 2075 12 760 3 109 33 579 2100 13 195 1 355 38 294 1Refers to high and low immigration alternatives. 2Figures for net migration are rounded after subtracting number of emigrations from number of immigrations. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ...
About the statistics
The information under «About the statistics» was last updated 18 September 2023.
A population projection is an estimate of the future size and composition of a population, given certain assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy, immigration and emigration. The term projection is used for any estimate of the future population, including less likely ones. A prognosis or forecast is an estimate of the most probable future population size and composition.
Statistics Norway publishes several projections, but the MMM alternative, which assumes the medium level for each component, is what we assume to be most plausible.
The various alternatives and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections report (see link under 'Relevant documentation').
Not relevant.
Contact
Inquiries about national projections
nasjfram@ssb.noInquiries about regional projections
regfram@ssb.noRelatert innhold
Analyses, articles and publications
Article / 5 June 2024Norway’s 2024 national population projectionsThe 2024 national population projections show a declining rate of population growth, strong population ageing, and a larger, more established, and older immigrant population. According to the main alternative, the Norwegian population will increase from around 5.55 million today to 6 million in 2040 and above 6.2 million in 2100.
Discussion Papers / 13 May 2020Ways to project fertility in EuropeNational statistical offices responsible for population projections should regularly evaluate their work. Norway is currently considering changing the way fertility is projected.
Discussion Papers no. 948 / 26 March 2021The accuracy of Statistics Norway’s national population projectionsStatistics Norway projects the population by age, sex and immigrant background at the national level. This paper examines the accuracy of the Norwegian population projections produced between 1996 and 2018.
