The upward adjustment for 2025 is driven by higher estimates within the categories field development and exploration. The investment estimate for 2025 now indicates a nominal growth of 19 percent compared to the corresponding estimate for 2024, given a year ago, the statistics oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply show. In the previous survey the indicated growth from 2024 to 2025 was 15 per cent.
There will also be high investment activity next year on the many field developments that were started at the end of 2022. New pipelines are also being built in connection with some of these developments, which increases investments in pipeline transportation. In addition, clearly higher activity within fields on stream is planned for next year.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see this article.
Marginal increase in the forecast for 2024
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2024 are now estimated at NOK 247 billion, which is historically the highest nominal estimate given since this statistic was created. The estimate is 1.3 per cent higher than in the previous survey. It is increased estimates within fields on stream and exploration that drive the increase from the previous survey.
The estimate is also 25 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2023, given in the second quarter of last year. In the previous survey, a percentage growth of as much as 30 per cent was indicated. As Figure 2 above shows, the estimate for 2023 increased a year ago more than is the case for 2024 now.
It is worth mentioning that the investments made for 2023 ended up as much as 8.8 percent higher than the estimate given for 2023 a year ago, with which we are now comparing the current 2024 estimate. Historical estimates show that the annual estimate given in February of the investment year has been on average 2.4 per cent lower than the final investments for the past 21 years, and none of these years, except for 2023, has had final investments that have been as much as 8.8 percent higher than the May estimate. With this background, it may be more appropriate to compare the estimate given for 2024 now with final investments for 2023. With that as a starting point, a growth of 14.7 per cent in 2024 is indicated.
As figure 3 above shows, the rise indicated in 2024 is broad. Investments in all investment areas are expected to increase compared to the corresponding estimates given for 2023, but it is a marked increase in field development that contributes the most to the projected increase in 2024. The many field developments for which a plan for development and operation (PUD) was delivered late in 2022 will overall have higher investment activity in 2024 than in 2023. It is common for development projects to have higher investments in the second year of development than in the first. Growth in 2024 is also driven by higher investments in exploration and fields on stream. A strong rise is also indicated for the categories pipeline transportation and shutdown and removal until next year, but since these categories initially have low levels of investment, they only contribute modestly to the increase estimated for investments in total.
Higher estimates for 2025
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2025, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 216 billion. This is NOK 11 billion more than estimated in the previous survey. The increase is mainly driven by increased estimates within field development and exploration, but the estimates for the other investment areas also contribute to the increase. The increased estimate for field development is partly related to the fact that a PUD has been delivered for a new development project. Such projects are included in the first investment count after the PUD has been delivered. Within the exploration business, a few more exploration wells have been included in the operators' preliminary budgets.
The estimate for investments in pipeline transport and extraction of oil and gas for 2025 is now 19 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2024, given in the second quarter of last year. As figure 4 below shows, the indicated increase in 2025 is driven by investments in fields on stream. There is a particularly strong increase in the estimate for the commodity subcategory. We also see that an increase is indicated in all other main categories in 2025.
It may still be worth pointing out that the estimate for 2024 has increased by as much as 36 percent from the estimate given for this year in the 2nd quarter of last year to the estimate given in this survey. Apart from 2023, when the forecast growth was a whopping 51 per cent, such a forecast growth from May of the year before the investment year to May of the investment year has not been seen since 2008. The forecast growth was artificially high in 2023 because the estimate given in May of the year before the investment year did not have estimates for the many developments that did not come until the 1st quarter of 2023. The early estimates for 2008 and in the previous years were artificially low because few operators in those years submitted exploration estimates in May of the year before the investment year. There are no such artificial reasons for the strong forecast growth for 2024. The increase is linked to high price growth throughout last year, largely as a result of the devaluation of the krone. In addition, investments on a number of developments were forced relative to initial plans, which has increased planned activity in 2024. There has also been an increase in costs beyond what has been the case for price growth, e.g. that projects have required more investment activity than previously planned. The increase in the price of input factors in the industry seems to be moderated this year compared to last year. There is no reason to expect further increases in investment beyond those announced last year. Cost increases can otherwise be expected to occur on certain projects. All in all, one can conclude that the reasons for the strong increase in estimates in 2024 are not present to the same extent for 2025. In addition, there will only be a few new developments in the next year, which will only contribute to relatively modest increases in the estimates for 2025.
Seasonally adjusted nominal investment growth in the 1st quarter
The final investments in the 1st quarter came to NOK 55.3 billion. This is 12 per cent lower than estimated in the previous quarter, and 11.2 per cent lower than the investments in the 4th quarter, unadjusted. The seasonally adjusted growth from the 4th to the 1st quarter, on the other hand, was positive at 2.0 per cent. The reason for this is that seasonally, investments tend to be far lower in the 1st quarter than in the 4th quarter. This is the sixth quarter in a row of growth in the seasonally adjusted quarterly investments, but growth has slowed gradually in recent quarters.