The estimate for 2025 investments in the statistics oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply now indicates an increase by 4.2 per cent from 2024 to 2025.
The initial estimate for 2026 is stated to be NOK 197 billion. This is 4 per cent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2025, given a year ago. However, the given figure is still historically and nominally the second highest first-time estimate given in the statistics.
Total accrued investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2024 amounted to NOK 251 billion, which is 16.7 per cent higher than final investments in 2023. The growth in 2024 comes after growth in 2023 was as much as 22 percent. The strong increase in the level of investments over the past two years is clearly related to the tax measures package, where favourable taxation was provided for all developments for which a plan for development and operation (PDO) was submitted before the end of 2022. This is the reason why a large number of developments were started at the end of 2022, which has led to strong investment growth in 2023 and 2024. In addition, relatively high product prices in these years have also contributed to high investment activity in fields on stream.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the following article. (lenke).
High initial estimate for 2026
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2026 are estimated at NOK 197 billion. The estimate is only 4 per cent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2025, given in 1st quarter 2024, which was a record high.
The decline indicated for 2026 is largely driven by lower estimates in the largest categories of field development and fields on stream. The estimates indicate an even stronger fall in pipeline transportation, but since this category initially has clearly lower activity, it does little to amplify the decline estimated for total investment. In the opposite direction, the estimates for onshore activities, shutdown and removal, as well as exploration and concept studies, are moving in the opposite direction, and these categories therefore contribute to dampening the indicated decline overall.
Marginally higher estimate for 2025
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2025, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 254 billion. This is only 0.5 per cent higher than estimated in the previous quarter. Higher estimates for fields in operation, field development and onshore activities contribute to the upward revision, while the estimate for exploration has been somewhat lower compared with the previous measurement.
The estimate for 2025 is 4.2 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2025, given in the 1st quarter 2024. This is lower than in the previous survey, when indicated growth from 2024 to 2025 was 8.9 per cent since the projection for 2024 a year ago increased more than the projection for 2025 did now, as Figure 2 above shows.
As figure 3 above shows, the upturn indicated in 2025 is driven by fields on stream. The estimate for this category is 17.5 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2024. The estimate for onshore activities is also clearly higher than the corresponding estimate for 2024, but since this category initially has little activity, it contributes little to total growth in 2025.
Clear investment growth in 2024
Total investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2024 were NOK 251 billion. This was 1.9 per cent lower than the estimate given for 2024 in the previous survey in November. Measured in current prices, investments are 16.7 per cent higher than in 2023. As figure 4 below shows, the increase was broad-based, but was mainly driven by markedly higher investments in field development.
Investments in field development amounted to NOK 113 billion in 2024. This is as much as 20 percent higher than in 2023. The strong increase is largely due to the fact that the many new field developments for which the plan for development and operation (PDO) was submitted at the end of 2022 had clearly higher investment activity than they had the year before. It is common for development projects to have higher investments in the second year of development than in the first.
Investments in fields on stream ended at NOK 88 billion in 2024, 3.9 per cent higher than the year before. In current value, these are the highest operating investments since 2014. The high level of activity in fields on stream may be related to the fact that product prices have remained at a high level throughout the year. In addition, some of the projects that were triggered as a result of favourable tax rules are also included in fields on stream.
The investments in shutdown and removal amounted to NOK 8.4 billion in 2024. This is 86 per cent more than the investments in this category in 2023. This is a category where the level of activity can vary somewhat from year to year, and was particularly low in 2023. The level of activity depends on how many platforms are to be removed from the shelf and how many wells are shut down and permanently plugged.
NOK 3.9 billion was invested in pipeline transportation in 2024. This is close to 40 percent more than in 2023. There was higher investment activity both on the construction of the new pipelines being built in connection with some of the new field developments and on some pipelines on stream.
Higher activity in exploration and concept studies in 2024
Investment expenditure on exploration and concept studies ended at NOK 32.1 billion in 2024, which is 32 per cent more than the year before. The increase is largely driven by the subcategory of exploration drilling, on which NOK 22.1 billion was spent in 2024. This is as much as 42 percent more than in 2023. According to the Norwegian Shelf Directorate, 44 exploration wells were started in 2024, which is nine more than the year before. Of last year's wells, 31 were wildcat wells and 13 were appraisal wells. 16 new discoveries were made, resulting in resource growth of about 252 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Higher investments in 4th quarter
The final investments in the 4th quarter of 2024 came to NOK 68.7 billion. This is 6.7 per cent lower than estimated in the previous quarter, but 8.4 per cent higher than the investments in the 3rd quarter, unadjusted. The seasonally adjusted increase from 3rd quarter to 4th quarter is lower, 3.2 per cent. This is because investments seasonally tend to be somewhat higher in 4th quarter than in 3rd quarter.