The upward adjustment for 2022 is driven by higher estimates within the categories field development, onshore activity and exploration and concept studies. Among other things, a new plan for development and operation (PDO) have been submitted. This project was not included in the estimates given in the previous quarter.
The estimate for 2022 in the statistics oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply now indicate a decrease of 8 per cent from the previous year. This is about the same fall indicated in the previous investment survey.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the following article. (lenke).
Slightly lower investment estimate for 2023
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2023 are estimated at NOK 130.6 billion. The estimate is 0.6 per cent lower than the figure stated in the initial estimate for 2023 from the previous survey in February.
The estimate for 2023 is 8.5 per cent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2022, given in the second quarter of 2021. This is a higher fall than indicated in the previous survey. Then the estimates for 2023 showed a fall of 5.1 percent. The stronger fall that is now indicated is due to the downward adjustment of the estimate for 2023 now from the previous survey and an upward adjustment in the estimate given for 2022 in similar measurements last year.
It is especially the estimates for fields on stream and exploration and concept studies that contribute to the indicated decline for 2023, but a clear decline in shutdown and removal is also estimated. It is estimated that there will be a sharp increase in the smaller categories of onshore activity and pipe transportation in 2023, and a smaller increase in field development. These three categories thus help to curb the decline that is now indicated in 2023.
New developments will significantly increase the estimate for 2023
Field developments are only included in the survey when a plan for development and operation (PDO) is submitted to the authorities. In the Parliament’s tax measures package, which was adopted in June 2020, it was provided a favourable taxation for all development investments for PDOs submitted before 1 January 2023. It is expected to be submitted a very high number of plans for development and operation (PDOs) to the government during the present year, the most of them in December. The largest among these are Wisting, NOA Fulla, Krafla, King Lear and Linnorm. If the schedules for the expected projects are maintained, there will be significantly higher investments in field development in 2023 than what is currently included in the survey. The most of these are scheduled to be included in the survey in the first quarter of 2023.
Higher estimate for 2022
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2022, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 167.2 billion. This is 4.8 per cent higher than estimated in the previous quarter. It is especially increased estimates for field development, onshore activity, exploration and concept studies that contribute to the upward adjustment.
The estimate for investments in pipe transport and extraction of oil and gas for 2022 is now 8.0 per cent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2021, given in the second quarter of last year. As Figure 4 below shows, it is mainly the estimates for the categories field development and fields on stream that contribute to the decline indicated from 2021 to 2022, while the categories onshore activity, exploration and concept studies, on the other hand, go in a positive direction and contribute to curbing the stated decline somewhat.
The many upcoming field developments mentioned in the discussion of 2023 above will each have relatively low investments made this year, both because developments tend to have low investments in the first year and because the most of the developments are expected to start very late this year. But since the planned projects are so many, they will still be able to generate significant investments in the 4th quarter of this year.
Investment decrease in the 1st quarter
Investments in the 1st quarter ended at around NOK 40.4 billion. This is 6.9 per cent lower than what was estimated in the 1st quarter. The investments made are 13 per cent lower than in the 4th quarter of 2021. The seasonally adjusted figures, on the other hand, show only a decrease of 2.0 per cent, since investments seasonally tend to be clearly lower in the 1st quarter than in the 4th quarter.