The estimate for 2024 is 0.4 per cent lower than the estimate given in the previous quarter. Furthermore, the 2024 estimate is 18.4 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2023, given in the 4th quarter of 2023. The strong growth indicated has its background in the fact that there is far higher investment activity this year on the many developments that were started late in 2022 than there was last year. Development projects tend to have significantly higher activity in their second year than in their first year. In addition, clearly higher activity in exploration, pipeline transportation and shutdown and removal this year also contributes to the growth. However, it is worth mentioning that the investment figures collected in these statistics are in current value. According to Statistics Norway's national accounts, the annual growth in investment prices in the first six months of the year is 7 per cent. Investment growth measured in fixed prices will therefore be lower than the growth in current prices indicated in this measurement.
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the following article.
Increased estimates indicate investment growth in 2025
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2024 are estimated at NOK 253 billion. This is 5.2 per cent higher than the estimate given in the previous survey. The increase is driven by higher figures for field development, but estimates are also increasing for all the other main categories. The higher estimate is mainly due to significant higher reported cost estimates on some development projects. These increased costs will probably not contribute much to expanded production capacity more than initially planned. There have been no new development projects includedin this count.
Furthermore, the estimate for 2025 is 8.9 per cent higher than the estimate given for 2024 in the 4th quarter 2023. As figure 2 above shows, the estimate for 2024 has continued to increase since the estimate was given a year ago, and is now 10.4 per cent higher. It is expected that a plan for development and operation (PDO) will be delivered to the authorities for some new developments next year, which will raise the estimate for 2025 beyond what is included in the count now.
As figure 3 above shows, it is the increase in fields on stream that is driving the growth estimated for 2025. A strong rise is also indicated for the categories pipeline transportation and onshore activity next year, while the estimate for field development is somewhat lower than the corresponding estimate for 2024.
Clear investment growth in 2024
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2023, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 256 billion. This is NOK 1 billion lower than estimated in the previous quarter. It is the category fields on stream that has been adjusted down.
The estimate for investments in pipeline transportation and extraction of oil and gas for 2024 is now 18.4 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2023, given in the 4th quarter of last year. The estimated growth rate is down from 20.6 per cent in the previous survey.
As Figure 4 above shows, all investment areas contribute to the growth indicated for 2024. It is higher investment activity within field development that contributes most to the growth. Investment activity in shutdown and removal, and exploration and concept studies has also picked up sharply this year after a decline in 2023. The number of exploration wells started this year is already at the beginning of November higher than was the case for the whole of last year. Activity related to field evaluation and concept studies has also picked up sharply, admittedly from low levels last year. Several discoveries are evaluated and planned for future development. Fields on stream also contribute to higher investments. The estimate for pipeline transportation increases by as much as 171 per cent from the corresponding estimate last year, but since this category initially has a low level of investment, it contributes to a lesser extent to the increase estimated for investments in total.
Seasonally adjusted growth in the 3rd quarter
Accrued, unadjusted investment costs decreased by 0.4 per cent from the 2nd to the 3rd quarter of 2024 to NOK 63.4 billion. The seasonally adjusted figures on the other hand show an investment increase of 1.1 per cent from the 2nd to the 3rd quarter. The investments carried out in the 3rd quarter ended up 9 per cent lower than in the estimate given for the 3rd quarter in the previous survey.
The accrued investments in the first three quarters in 2024 summed up to NOK 182 billion. Realization of the current estimate for 2024 assumes investments of NOK 74 billion in the 4th quarter, which implies investment growth of 16.1 per cent from the 3rd to the 4th quarter. Historical figures show that there are normally highest investments in the 4th quarter. Over the past 5 years, average investment growth from the 3rd to the 4th quarter has been 8.5 per cent, while corresponding growth in the 4th quarter of last year was 10.4 per cent. The current annual forecast therefore assumes higher growth from the 3rd to the 4th quarter than normal.
The annual estimate given in the 4th quarter of the investment year has been on average 2.2 percent higher than the final investments over the past 21 years, and in only two of these years has the annual estimate given in the 4th quarter been lower than the final investments, and this last occurred in 2022. All in all, this gives reason to believe that some of the investments planned for the 4th quarter will be postponed until next year.