The business tendency survey for the 1st quarter of 2025 shows that overall manufacturing production in the first quarter was higher compared to the previous quarter, but there are industry-specific differences. Most Covers industries such as wood and wood products, paper and paper products, basic chemicals and basic metals. Often referred to as traditional export industries. producers report unchanged production while Covers industries such as food products and beverages, printing and reproduction, pharmaceuticals and furniture. producers report a moderate increase in production. The producers of Covers industries such as machinery and equipment, ships, boats and oil platforms, repair and installation. Often referred to as the engineering industry. report a clear increase in production.
Industrial leaders report growth in total industrial employment in the 1st quarter. It is the producers of capital goods that are responsible for most of the growth. Producers of consumer goods and intermediate goods also reports an increase in employment.
The growth in capital goods has been driven by high activity in the supplier industry, which can be linked to the high oil and gas investements.
Unchanged in total stock of orders
Overall, industrial leaders report a slight decline in those new orders from the domestic market in the 1st quarter.
Producers of intermediate goods report a decline in new orders from the domestic market, while the majority of producers of consumer goods report unchanged in new orders. For producers of capital goods, new orders from the domestic market are reported report a slight recovery from the domestic market. There are also reports of unchanged new orders from the export market, overall. Producers of consumer goods and capital goods report a moderate increase, while producers of intermediate goods report a decrease in new orders from the export market.
Total new orders have decreased moderately in the 1st quarter. Producers of intermediate goods report a fall in the total stock of orders from the domestic market, while for producers of consumer goods, the total stock of orders is reported to be unchanged. Producers of capital goods report a moderate increase from the domestic market. There are also reports from the export market of a slightly declining new orders. For consumer goods, the new orders are reported to be unchanged. Producers of capital goods report an increase, while producers of intermediate goods report a clear decline in new orders from the export market.
For the manufacturing sector as a whole, there is no change in the total stock of orders during the 1st quarter. Producers of intermediate goods report unchanged total stocks of order while producers of consumer goods and capital goods report a moderate increase.
Many industrial managers are reporting growth in the prices, both in domestic and export market for overall manufacturing in the 1st quarter. Price growth is reported within all the types of goods, but the growth is clearest for the producers of consumer goods. The price level for the export market is increasing to a lesser extent than on the domestic market in this quarter.
A large number of manufacturing leaders report continued growth in The development in the prices that the company pays for the goods and services that are included in the production (product input), and on the prices of production equipment and facilities used in the production process. in the 1st quarter. It is the producers of consumer goods that have the clearest growth in cost prices. Since the rise in cost prices is more pronounced than for product prices, it is not surprising that there are reports of falling The development in the profitability of the company's sales of goods or services. Profitability means the change in the difference between current operating expenses and current operating revenues. in manufacturing in the 1st quarter.
Positive expectations for the 2nd quarter of 2025
The general outlook for the 1st quarter of 2025 is positive for manufacturing. Optimism is somewhat lower now than in the last two quarters. Producers of capital goods are most positive about the coming quarter. while producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods have neutral expectations for the second quarter of this year.
Manufacturing leaders expect higher production volumes and growth in average employment in the 2nd quarter, compared with the 1st quarter. An increase in new orders is expected from both the domestic and export markets. The total stock of orders is also expected to increase in the 2nd quarter.
It is still the producers of capital goods who report the best future prospects. They still expect continued clear growth in production and employment, and growth in new orders from both markets, and an increase in the total stock of orders.
The producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods report somewhat weaker future prospects. Both expect growth in overall production and new orders from both markets, and growth in stock of total orders. For intermediate goods, employment is expected to increase moderately in the 2nd quarter, while for producers of consumer goods, average employment is expected to be lower compared with the previous quarter.
It is also expected that cost prices and prices of products sold to both the domestic market and the export market will continue to increase in the 2nd quarter.
Factors that limit investment
Manufacturing leaders report that investment plans remain unchanged for manufacturing as a whole. The proportion of manufacturing managers who believe that The prices of the investment goods (production equipment and facilities used in the production process) that the company purchases are so high that it limits the implementation of planned investments. and financing costs are limiting factors on investment is still relatively high.
The industrial confidence indicator signals growth in the 1st quarter
This is the average of the responses (balances) to the questions on expected volume of production, total stock of orders and inventories of own products for sale (the latter with an inverted sign). See Definitions in ‘About the statistics’ for further details. in the 1st quarter of 2025 was 4.0 (Figures that are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variation. Such adjustment gives a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the time series and makes it easier to compare the results of subsequent quarters.) down from 5.3 in the previous quarter. The indicator is now above the historical average of 2.9.
Values above zero indicate that total output will grow in the forthcoming quarter, while values below zero indicate that total output will fall. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from Eurostat (EU), The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Denmark.
Access to qualified labor limits production
The proportion of industry leaders reporting that weak demand and strong competition limit is still relatively high and has been fairly stable for the past two years. At the same time, historically speaking, there is still a high proportion of manufacturing managers who point out that a lack of qualified labor is a factor that contributed to limiting production in the 1st quarter. The proportion reporting that the availability of supply of raw materials and/or electrical power limits production is somewhat higher in this quarter than last quarter. The sum of percentages for those who have reported that lack of qualified labour and raw materials/electric power limits production, plus the percentage of establishments with capacity utilisation above 95 per cent., which was very high in connection with the pandemic, has stabilized at lower levels in the past year.
The average How much of the available production capacity is utilised. A high capacity utilisation means that it is difficult to produce more without investing, while a low capacity utilisation means having capacity that is not being used. for Norwegian manufacturing was calculated to 79 per cent at the end of the 1st quarter. This is marginally higher than at the end of 4th quarter. The capacity utilisation is still at barely below than the historical average of 80.0 per cent. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from Eurostat(EU).
Timelines
The survey data was collected in the period from 6 March 2025 to 22 April 2025.
