The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the period November 2022-January 2023 amounted to 118.6 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 118.9. The long-term trend has been more stable in the last few months (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures¹. 2005=100

¹ March 2020 to March 2022 are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine. Hence, this period are not included in the figure.
Source: Index of industrial production, Statistics Norway

Monthly change: increase within fabricated metals products

According to In order to facilitate the interpretation of the short-term development, the index of production publishes three-month moving averages of the seasonally-adjusted figures. We normally compare the latest non-overlapping three-month periods. Seasonally-adjusted monthly changes must be interpreted with caution., manufacturing output had an increase of 0.9 per cent in January 2023 compared to December 2022. The industry for fabricated metals products contributed the most to overall output with a growth of 4.5 per cent.

On the other hand, the overall output increase was dampened by a fall of 2.3 per cent within the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

The weights in the index of industrial production (PII) are updated by the transition to a new year. The basis for the weights in the index of industrial production (PII) is value added at factor prices from the annual structure statistics for oil and gas, manufacturing, electricity and district heating for 2021. The value added figures are updated to the situation at the end of 2022 with rates of change from the quarterly national accounts, and volume figures from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within manufacturing, wood and wood products was the industry that had the largest increase in weights from 2022 to 2023. On the other hand, weights for food products had the largest decline from 2022 to 2023. For the total aggregate (PII), the weights for manufacturing decreased, while the weight for extraction and related services increased.

As of January 2023, updated productivity factors will be included in the calculation of the index of industrial production (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply. The factors are based on annual volume change in GDP per hour worked for the relevant industries and are an average from the last five years. This information is collected from the annual national accounts.