National population projections

Statistics Norway produces the population projections for Norway. This is one of Statistics Norway’s ongoing tasks and is financed by the central government. Methodology and results are published on Statistics Norway's website. 

Population projections are a key tool in both local and national planning. They are also used in other types of economic and demographic projections and are of interest to public authorities, the private sector and the general public.

To project the national population, make assumptions about future fertility, mortality and international migration (immigration and emigration). These assumptions are incorporated into a cohort-component model, which calculates future populations by age and sex at the national level up to and including the year 2100. Immigrants from three country groups, Norwegian-born children with two immigrant parents and the rest of the population are projected as separate groups. Immigrants are also projected by duration of stay, based on when they first immigrated to Norway.

Beyond the publication of results, the project performs empirical analyses of the components (fertility, mortality and migration), development of the methodologies and evaluations of the accuracy of earlier projections.

Publications

Syse, A., Artamonova, Al, Thomas, M. & Veenstra, M. (2022). Do characteristics of family members influence older persons’ transition to long-term healthcare services? (bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com)

Syse, A., Thomas, M., Dommermutch, L. & Hart, R. K. (2022). Does women’s health matter for fertility? Evidence from Norwegian administrative data (tandfonline.com)

Gleditsch, R., Syse, A. & Thomas, M. J. (2021). Fertility Projections in a European Context: A Survey of Current Practices among Statistical Agencies (sciendo.com)

Gleditsch, R. F., Rogne, A. F., Syse, A. & Thomas, M. J. (2021). The accuracy of Statistics Norway's national population projections

Skjerpen, T. & Tønnessen, M. (2021). Population Studies. Using future age profiles to improve immigration projections (tandfonline.com)

Thomas, M. J., & Dommermuth, L. (2021). Interrelationships Among Fertility, Internal Migration, and Proximity to Nonresident Family: A Multilevel Multiprocess Analysis (read.dukeupress.edu)

Wallace, M., Thomas, M. J., Aburto, J. M., Pallesen, A. V. J., Mortensen, L. H., Syse, A. & Drefahl, S. (2021). The impact of the mortality of international migrants on estimates and comparisons of national life expectancy: A comparative study of four Nordic nations (su.figshare.com)

Gleditsch, R., Thomas, M. J. & Syse, A. (2020). Nasjonale befolkningsframskrivinger 2020: Modeller, forutsetninger og resultater

Syse, A., Thomas, M. & Gleditsch, R. (2020). Norway’s 2020 population projections: National level results, methods and assumptions

Thomas, M. J., & Dommermuth, L. (2020). Internal Migration and the Role of Intergenerational Family Ties and Life Events (onlinelibrary.wiley.com)

Thomas, M., Gleditsch, R. & Syse, A. (2020). Technical documentation of the BEFINN model, g2020

Thomas, M. J., Gillespie, B. J. & Lomaz, N. (2019). Variations in migration motives over distance (demographic-research.org)

Cappelen, Å., Skjerpen, T. og Tønnessen, M. (2015). Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model, International Migration Review, 49 4, 945-980.

Keilman, N. Can We Rely on Projections of the Immigrant Population? The Case of Norway (link.springer.com)