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Economic trends
Economic forecasting is an important planning tool for individuals, businesses and the authorities. Independent forecasts with free universal access are beneficial to society, and form part of Statistics Norway’s social mission to produce macroeconomic forecasting.
Updated: 18 March 2025
Next update: 13 June 2025
Selected figures from this statistics
- Economic trends. ForecastsDownload table as ...Economic trends. Forecasts1 2
2025 2026 2027 2028 Gross domestic product -0.4 1.5 1.1 -0.3 GDP Mainland Norway 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 Employed persons 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 Unemployment rate (level) 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.9 Wages per standard man-year 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.4 Consumer price index (CPI) 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 CPI-ATE 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 Housing prices 7.0 5.5 3.2 2.3 Money market rate (level) 4.4 3.8 3.5 3.5 Import-weighted NOK exchange rate (44 countries) 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 1Forecasts for current and future years. 2Percentage change from previous year unless otherwise noted. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Main economic indicators. Accounts and forecastsDownload table as ...Main economic indicators. Accounts and forecasts1 2
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Forecasts 2025 2026 2027 2028 Demand and output Consumption in households etc 1.1 2.2 1.4 1.0 -6.2 5.1 7.8 -1.2 1.2 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.3 General government consumption 2.3 1.9 0.6 1.1 -0.5 3.6 1.8 3.4 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.0 Gross fixed investment 3.9 2.6 2.2 9.5 -4.1 0.7 0.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.6 0.5 1.5 1.7 Extraction and transport via pipelines -16.0 -5.4 0.7 14.3 -3.3 -0.9 -6.0 10.2 9.6 1.0 -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 Gross fixed investment mainland Norway 9.0 6.8 1.5 6.3 -3.1 1.6 1.7 -2.6 -4.9 -2.9 1.6 3.2 3.1 Industries 12.6 9.2 3.1 10.3 -5.3 3.2 2.7 2.9 -3.3 -2.4 -1.8 -0.8 1.0 Housing 6.6 7.3 -6.5 -1.1 -1.6 3.5 0.4 -18.3 -19.1 -14.1 6.5 15.2 10.0 General government 6.4 2.6 8.1 7.5 -1.1 -2.5 1.5 4.1 3.5 3.2 3.8 2.4 1.8 Demand from Mainland Norway3 3.1 3.1 1.2 2.3 -3.9 3.9 4.7 -0.3 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.1 Exports 0.4 1.6 -1.5 2.1 -2.3 6.1 5.2 0.4 5.7 -1.7 1.4 0.7 -1.5 Exports of traditional goods -11.2 0.9 2.0 5.1 -0.8 6.7 -1.8 5.3 1.9 2.8 2.6 3.3 2.8 Exports of crude oil and natural gas 5.4 5.2 -4.6 -2.9 10.5 0.2 0.3 -1.8 7.5 -4.0 0.6 -1.2 -4.9 Imports 1.9 1.8 1.4 5.3 -9.9 1.8 13.3 -1.5 3.7 0.9 1.7 2.5 2.4 Imports of traditional goods -1.4 3.5 2.8 6.2 -2.7 5.4 6.2 -6.2 3.6 0.2 1.3 2.5 2.5 Gross domestic product 1.2 2.5 0.8 1.1 -1.3 3.9 3.2 0.1 2.1 -0.4 1.5 1.1 -0.3 GDP Mainland Norway 0.9 2.2 1.9 2.3 -2.8 4.5 4.3 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 GDP Manufacturing -4.1 -0.1 1.6 2.1 -5.7 5.6 1.0 0.0 1.6 3.2 4.0 2.7 1.5 GDP in current prices (NOK billion) 3 116 3 323 3 577 3 597 3 462 4 324 5 733 5 102 5 198 5 451 5 531 5 649 5 768 Labour market Total hours worked, Mainland Norway 0.6 0.5 1.6 1.5 -2.1 2.4 3.5 0.6 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.2 Employed persons 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.6 -1.5 1.1 3.7 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 Labor force 0.2 -0.2 1.4 1.0 0.4 2.2 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 Participation rate (level) 70.4 69.7 70.2 70.5 70.4 72.1 72.6 72.8 72.7 72.5 72.7 72.6 72.6 Unemployment rate (level) 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.7 4.6 4.4 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.9 Prices and wages Wages per standard man-year 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.3 5.2 5.6 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.4 Consumer price index (CPI) 3.6 1.8 2.7 2.2 1.3 3.5 5.8 5.5 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 CPI-ATE4 3.0 1.4 1.6 2.2 3.0 1.7 3.9 6.2 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 Export prices, traditional goods 4.5 4.7 5.1 0.1 -3.5 12.6 30.4 0.0 -1.5 3.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 Import prices, traditional goods 2.5 3.2 4.1 2.5 4.3 5.0 15.9 5.5 0.7 2.6 1.7 2.0 2.2 Housing prices 7.0 5.0 1.4 2.5 4.3 10.5 5.2 -0.5 2.7 7.0 5.5 3.2 2.3 Income, interest rates and excange rate Household real income -1.6 2.0 0.9 2.0 1.1 4.1 -3.4 -2.5 3.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.2 Household saving ratio (level) 6.9 6.6 5.9 7.1 12.9 13.8 4.7 4.0 7.3 7.7 8.0 8.0 7.7 Money market rate (level) 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.5 2.1 4.2 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.5 3.5 Lending rate, credit loans (level)5 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.6 2.1 2.9 5.0 6.0 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.8 Real after-tax lending rate, banks (level) -1.6 0.1 -0.7 0.2 0.7 -1.8 -3.3 -1.5 1.5 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.7 Import-weighted NOK exchange rate (44 countries)6 1.8 -0.8 0.1 2.9 6.7 -5.3 1.2 8.5 0.8 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 NOK per euro (level) 9.29 9.33 9.60 9.85 10.72 10.16 10.10 11.42 11.63 11.68 11.67 11.67 11.67 Current account Current balance (NOK billion)7 163 210 320 136 38 644 1 699 887 890 778 719 641 567 Current account (per cent of GDP) 5.2 6.3 9.0 3.8 1.1 14.9 29.6 17.4 17.1 14.3 13.0 11.3 9.8 International indicators Exports markets indicator 3.8 5.6 4.3 3.4 -7.5 10.1 8.2 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.7 3.0 Consumer price index, euro-area 0.2 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.3 2.6 8.4 5.4 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 Money market rate, euro (level) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.3 3.4 3.6 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 Crude oil price US dollar (level)8 45 55 72 64 43 71 99 82 80 69 66 66 66 Crude oil price NOK (level)8 379 452 583 564 407 609 951 867 856 752 709 705 708 1Percentage change from previous year unless otherwise noted. 2Some time series may have been revised after the publication of the Economic Trends. 3Consumption in households and non-profit organizations + general government consumption + gross fixed capital formation in mainland Norway. 4CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 5Yearly average. Credit lines, secured on dwellings. 6Increasing index implies depreciation. 7Current account not adjusted for saving in pension funds. 8Average spot price Brent Blend. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ...
About the statistics
The information under «About the statistics» was last updated 16 April 2021.
Economic forecasting
Economic forecasting is an important planning tool for individuals, businesses and the authorities. Independent forecasts with free universal access are beneficial to society, and form part of Statistics Norway’s social mission to produce macroeconomic forecasting.
Projection
The term ‘projection’ is used in relation to any forward-looking calculation, including improbable scenarios, while a ‘forecast’ is a prediction of the future condition of the economy that is considered most likely at the time the forecast is made.
The terms used in the economic trend publications are largely based on the terms in the national accounts, see https://www.ssb.no/en/nasjonalregnskap-og-konjunkturer/concepts-and-definitions-in-national-accounts
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Article / 18 March 2025Trade conflicts will not curb growth in the Norwegian economyDespite increased international trade barriers, we expect clear growth in the Norwegian economy, driven by increased purchasing power for households, higher defence investments and a recovery in housing construction.