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Economic trends
Economic forecasting is an important planning tool for individuals, businesses and the authorities. Independent forecasts with free universal access are beneficial to society, and form part of Statistics Norway’s social mission to produce macroeconomic forecasting.
Selected figures from this statistics
- Economic trends. ForecastsDownload table as ...Economic trends. Forecasts1 2
2025 2026 2027 2028 Gross domestic product -0.4 1.5 1.1 -0.3 GDP Mainland Norway 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 Employed persons 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 Unemployment rate (level) 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.9 Wages per standard man-year 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.4 Consumer price index (CPI) 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 CPI-ATE 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 Housing prices 7.0 5.5 3.2 2.3 Money market rate (level) 4.4 3.8 3.5 3.5 Import-weighted NOK exchange rate (44 countries) 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 1Forecasts for current and future years. 2Percentage change from previous year unless otherwise noted. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ... - Main economic indicators. Accounts and forecastsDownload table as ...Main economic indicators. Accounts and forecasts1 2
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Forecasts 2025 2026 2027 2028 Demand and output Consumption in households etc 1.1 2.2 1.4 1.0 -6.2 5.1 7.8 -1.2 1.2 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.3 General government consumption 2.3 1.9 0.6 1.1 -0.5 3.6 1.8 3.4 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.0 Gross fixed investment 3.9 2.6 2.2 9.5 -4.1 0.7 0.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.6 0.5 1.5 1.7 Extraction and transport via pipelines -16.0 -5.4 0.7 14.3 -3.3 -0.9 -6.0 10.2 9.6 1.0 -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 Gross fixed investment mainland Norway 9.0 6.8 1.5 6.3 -3.1 1.6 1.7 -2.6 -4.9 -2.9 1.6 3.2 3.1 Industries 12.6 9.2 3.1 10.3 -5.3 3.2 2.7 2.9 -3.3 -2.4 -1.8 -0.8 1.0 Housing 6.6 7.3 -6.5 -1.1 -1.6 3.5 0.4 -18.3 -19.1 -14.1 6.5 15.2 10.0 General government 6.4 2.6 8.1 7.5 -1.1 -2.5 1.5 4.1 3.5 3.2 3.8 2.4 1.8 Demand from Mainland Norway3 3.1 3.1 1.2 2.3 -3.9 3.9 4.7 -0.3 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.1 Exports 0.4 1.6 -1.5 2.1 -2.3 6.1 5.2 0.4 5.7 -1.7 1.4 0.7 -1.5 Exports of traditional goods -11.2 0.9 2.0 5.1 -0.8 6.7 -1.8 5.3 1.9 2.8 2.6 3.3 2.8 Exports of crude oil and natural gas 5.4 5.2 -4.6 -2.9 10.5 0.2 0.3 -1.8 7.5 -4.0 0.6 -1.2 -4.9 Imports 1.9 1.8 1.4 5.3 -9.9 1.8 13.3 -1.5 3.7 0.9 1.7 2.5 2.4 Imports of traditional goods -1.4 3.5 2.8 6.2 -2.7 5.4 6.2 -6.2 3.6 0.2 1.3 2.5 2.5 Gross domestic product 1.2 2.5 0.8 1.1 -1.3 3.9 3.2 0.1 2.1 -0.4 1.5 1.1 -0.3 GDP Mainland Norway 0.9 2.2 1.9 2.3 -2.8 4.5 4.3 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 GDP Manufacturing -4.1 -0.1 1.6 2.1 -5.7 5.6 1.0 0.0 1.6 3.2 4.0 2.7 1.5 GDP in current prices (NOK billion) 3 116 3 323 3 577 3 597 3 462 4 324 5 733 5 102 5 198 5 451 5 531 5 649 5 768 Labour market Total hours worked, Mainland Norway 0.6 0.5 1.6 1.5 -2.1 2.4 3.5 0.6 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.2 Employed persons 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.6 -1.5 1.1 3.7 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 Labor force 0.2 -0.2 1.4 1.0 0.4 2.2 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 Participation rate (level) 70.4 69.7 70.2 70.5 70.4 72.1 72.6 72.8 72.7 72.5 72.7 72.6 72.6 Unemployment rate (level) 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.7 4.6 4.4 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.9 Prices and wages Wages per standard man-year 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.3 5.2 5.6 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.4 Consumer price index (CPI) 3.6 1.8 2.7 2.2 1.3 3.5 5.8 5.5 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 CPI-ATE4 3.0 1.4 1.6 2.2 3.0 1.7 3.9 6.2 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 Export prices, traditional goods 4.5 4.7 5.1 0.1 -3.5 12.6 30.4 0.0 -1.5 3.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 Import prices, traditional goods 2.5 3.2 4.1 2.5 4.3 5.0 15.9 5.5 0.7 2.6 1.7 2.0 2.2 Housing prices 7.0 5.0 1.4 2.5 4.3 10.5 5.2 -0.5 2.7 7.0 5.5 3.2 2.3 Income, interest rates and excange rate Household real income -1.6 2.0 0.9 2.0 1.1 4.1 -3.4 -2.5 3.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.2 Household saving ratio (level) 6.9 6.6 5.9 7.1 12.9 13.8 4.7 4.0 7.3 7.7 8.0 8.0 7.7 Money market rate (level) 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.5 2.1 4.2 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.5 3.5 Lending rate, credit loans (level)5 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.6 2.1 2.9 5.0 6.0 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.8 Real after-tax lending rate, banks (level) -1.6 0.1 -0.7 0.2 0.7 -1.8 -3.3 -1.5 1.5 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.7 Import-weighted NOK exchange rate (44 countries)6 1.8 -0.8 0.1 2.9 6.7 -5.3 1.2 8.5 0.8 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 NOK per euro (level) 9.29 9.33 9.60 9.85 10.72 10.16 10.10 11.42 11.63 11.68 11.67 11.67 11.67 Current account Current balance (NOK billion)7 163 210 320 136 38 644 1 699 887 890 778 719 641 567 Current account (per cent of GDP) 5.2 6.3 9.0 3.8 1.1 14.9 29.6 17.4 17.1 14.3 13.0 11.3 9.8 International indicators Exports markets indicator 3.8 5.6 4.3 3.4 -7.5 10.1 8.2 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.7 3.0 Consumer price index, euro-area 0.2 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.3 2.6 8.4 5.4 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 Money market rate, euro (level) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.3 3.4 3.6 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 Crude oil price US dollar (level)8 45 55 72 64 43 71 99 82 80 69 66 66 66 Crude oil price NOK (level)8 379 452 583 564 407 609 951 867 856 752 709 705 708 1Percentage change from previous year unless otherwise noted. 2Some time series may have been revised after the publication of the Economic Trends. 3Consumption in households and non-profit organizations + general government consumption + gross fixed capital formation in mainland Norway. 4CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 5Yearly average. Credit lines, secured on dwellings. 6Increasing index implies depreciation. 7Current account not adjusted for saving in pension funds. 8Average spot price Brent Blend. Explanation of symbolsDownload table as ...
About the statistics
The information under «About the statistics» was last updated 16 April 2021.
Economic forecasting
Economic forecasting is an important planning tool for individuals, businesses and the authorities. Independent forecasts with free universal access are beneficial to society, and form part of Statistics Norway’s social mission to produce macroeconomic forecasting.
Projection
The term ‘projection’ is used in relation to any forward-looking calculation, including improbable scenarios, while a ‘forecast’ is a prediction of the future condition of the economy that is considered most likely at the time the forecast is made.
The terms used in the economic trend publications are largely based on the terms in the national accounts, see https://www.ssb.no/en/nasjonalregnskap-og-konjunkturer/concepts-and-definitions-in-national-accounts
Name: Economic trends
Topic: National accounts and business cycles
It is part of Statistics Norway’s remit to produce forecasts with free universal access, and the guidelines for research and analysis in Statistics Norway (Retningslinjer for forsknings- og analysevirksomheten i SSB - in Norwegian only) from the Ministry of Finance stipulate that forecasting and the monitoring of economic cycles are an important part of Statistics Norway’s work, see also the article on why Statistics Norway produces forecasts for economic trends in the Norwegian economy (Hvorfor lager SSB prognoser for utviklingen i norsk økonomi? - in Norwegian only).
Statistics Norway has been publishing macroeconomic forecasts for more than 30 years. The Economic trends articles describe the economic situation in Norway and abroad and give estimates of the main economic variables for the current year and the three subsequent years.
The forecasts are mainly prepared by researchers in the research department. There is a strong focus on transparency in relation to the assumptions underlying the forecasts, which are produced using the empirical macroeconomic model KVARTS. This model is based on national accounts data and financial behaviour, and is updated with new data on an ongoing basis. Using such a macroeconomic model ensures that the forecasts for the many variables are consistent with each other and with economic theory. Sensitivity analyses describing how changing assumptions affect the forecasts are often performed for the economic trend articles. Forecasting therefore also helps to shed light on the functioning of the economy.
Forecasting is an important planning tool (see also fact box). Households’ choices will often be based on expectations of developments in macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, wages, house prices and unemployment. For example, a household that is considering buying a house would find it relevant to calculate the burden that interest charges is likely to represent.
Companies will not only be interested in general macroeconomic developments, but in price and cost trends and demand. The picture that companies have of the market situation dictates whether they recruit more workers or invest in new production equipment.
When negotiating wages, employers and trade unions are interested in inflation rates and unemployment levels.
The ongoing monitoring of economic cycles is necessary for ensuring that other parts of Statistics Norway’s social mission are also carried out. The Government uses KVARTS in its work on the national budget, and the Ministry of Finance receives an updated model and forecasts after each economic trends publication. The Ministry of Finance then compiles its own forecasts for the Norwegian economy.
In the 1990s, Statistics Norway signed an agreement with the Storting’s Finance Committee and the Ministry of Finance to carry out macroeconomic calculations for an alternative national budget for the parties in parliament, see for example Statistics Norway’s calculations of the Frp party’s national budget proposal for 2013 (SSBs beregninger av Frps forslag til statsbudsjett for 2013 - in Norwegian only).
Statistics Norway also assists the Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements in producing estimates of the annual growth in the consumer price index. In addition, Statistics Norway takes on assignments from ministries and prepares Official Norwegian Reports (Norges offentlige utredninger, or NOUs) with analyses of the Norwegian economy. All these elements of the social mission require Statistics Norway to stay abreast of the trajectory of the Norwegian economy.
The projections are not subject to any particular statutory basis.
There are no EU regulations in this field.
Models are simplifications of reality, and they often only capture a few key mechanisms. This also applies to the macroeconomic model KVARTS that is used in the work on economic trends. Each year, the Norwegian publication on the economic outlook (Økonomisk utsyn) reviews the accuracy of the forecasts for the previous year. In addition, an analysis is made of the uncertainty in the estimates for mainland GDP, the consumer price index and the unemployment rate measured by the Labour Force Survey, based on the forecasts that Statistics Norway has published since 1991.
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Analyses, articles and publications
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