Business cycles

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of cointegrated vector autoregressive models when confronted with extreme observations at the end of the sample period.

Wage and income growth will be sustained by strong profitability in the wage-leading tradable sector, stimulating household consumption. Lower price growth and interest rate cuts will also increase consumption.

Petroleum-producing countries face unique challenges in meeting global emissions targets. As global petroleum consumption declines, these nations must reallocate resources and phase out a historically profitable industry.

Growth in the Norwegian economy has been modest since mid-2022. Several interest rate hikes, high inflation and low global demand have placed a damper on economic activity. At the same time, unemployment has increased from a low level, and is currently close to the average for the 2010s.

Strong profitability in the industrial sector and declining inflation are already leading to high real wage growth in 2024. The interest rate is most likely to be lowered from early 2025.

Growth in the Norwegian economy has been modest since mid-2022. High inflation and several interest rate hikes have contributed to curbing demand. At the same time there have been substantial, but declining pressures in the labour market. Unemployment has increased through 2023 and so far in 2024 and is now close to the average for the 2010s.

Going forward, activity in the Norwegian economy is expected to pick up, while inflation will continue to fall. Lower inflation and reduced interest rates among our trading partners will eventually lead to key policy rate cuts in Norway.

Interest rate hikes, stagnation of activity and slowing inflation characterised the Norwegian economy in 2023. It was also the year in which residential construction abruptly came to a virtual halt. The high labour market pressures eased somewhat through the year, and unemployment has now reached a level in line with the average for the 2010s.

Increased profitability in certain industries will stimulate real wage growth in the years ahead. The increased purchasing power will pull Norway out of the economic downturn in 2026.

NORA is one of the economic models in the portfolio of models maintained by the Research Department at Statistics Norway. The model aims to capture features of the Norwegian economy to aid in the analysis of fiscal policy in Norway.

The Norwegian economy is characterised by high inflation and interest rate hikes. Mainland growth has been below trend. At the same time, pressures in the labour market have been relatively high, but these, too, have abated somewhat compared with last year.

In Norway, national wage formation is based on pattern wage bargaining, where collective bargaining in the wage-leading manufacturing sector defines a norm for the negotiations that take place elsewhere in the economy (wage-following).

On 30 March 2023 Statistics Norway was assigned by the Wage Leader Model Committee to use modelling to analyse the consequences for wage formation and the Norwegian economy of changes in macroeconomic conditions.

Higher interest rates and increased costs for housing developers have curbed housing investment, which will lead to reduced economic growth in Norway.

Last year was characterised by high inflation, interest rate hikes and a rebound in economic activity following the pandemic. For a little over a year, activity in the Norwegian economy has been close to or slightly higher than what we regard as a trend level, but growth has been flagging recently.

Inflation is on the way down, and interest rates are set to peak soon. However, households’ real disposable income has weakened, and it appears that next year the interest burden will reach its highest level since the 1990s.

Last year was characterised by high inflation, interest rate hikes and a rebound in economic activity following the Covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. Growth in the Norwegian economy has slowed so far this year, and mainland GDP is close to what we regard as a trend level. The key policy rate has been raised by 0.5 percentage point this year and is currently 3.25 per cent.

The unusually weak krone lately means that it will be some time before the target inflation rate is reached. The consequence is likely to be another year of real wage decline and two more interest rate hikes.

The year 2022 was characterised by high inflation and a rebound in economic activity following the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. At the end of 2021, the omicron variant and new infection control measures resulted in a renewed fall in economic activity. However, with the lifting of the last infection control measures, mainland GDP picked up strongly with effect from March 2022.

The economic prospects in the county of Møre og Romsdal is, like in the nation generally, characterized by the fact that Norway is in an abnormal economic situation, where high interest rates, high inflation and lower demand from our trading partners reduce activity.

Growth in economic activity will be slightly lower, unemployment is likely to increase and inflation will see a rapid decline in 2023.

Prior to the outbreak of the Covid pandemic in 2020, the Norwegian economy was close to cyclically neutral. The entire downturn following the pandemic in 2020 was recouped in the autumn of 2021, but the omicron variant and subsequent infection control measures resulted in a new fall in mainland GDP in December 2021 and January 2022. The reopening of society in late January and early February this year boosted activity sharply in March.

The Norwegian economy is characterised by low unemployment, high consumer price growth, falling house prices and rising interest rates. In the short term, a moderate decline in the economy is expected, but mainland GDP is nevertheless expected to remain cyclically neutral in the next few years.

In November 2021, the decline in economic activity during the pandemic had been recouped. In December and in January 2022 mainland GDP slumped again as a consequence of new infection control measures in connection with the omicron variety. Activity picked up strongly again in February and March, and in March 2022 was roughly cyclically neutral.

Widespread price growth, increased interest rates and weaker growth prospects internationally will lead to an economic downturn in Norway in the next few years. However, the key policy rate will rise by a further 1 percentage point this year in an attempt to curb the high inflation.

We analyse how fiscal policy affects both the macroeconomy and the industry structure, using a multi-sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy with an inflation targeting monetary policy.

Almost the entire decline in economic activity ­during the pandemic was recouped in 2021. In December last year and January this year infection control measures in connection with the omicron variant of the coronavirus led to a fall in mainland GDP, but no more than 1.5 per cent for the two months combined. The reopening of society in late January and early February caused activity to pick up again, and in March mainland GDP was only slightly lower than what we regard as a trend level for the economy.

Norway is heading towards an economic boom. Meanwhile, inflation is at a record high. A rapid rise in interest rates can therefore be expected in the period ahead. Combined with reduced prospects globally, this will slow economic growth in Norway.

We identify variables that help explain the persistent weakness of the Norwegian krone since 2016 within a fully simultaneous model of the underlying process driving the krone-euro exchange rate.

The satellite accounts for the ocean are a pilot and are co-financed by the Research Council of Norway and Statistics Norway (SSB). It is part of the fourth phase of the OECD project «Future of the Ocean Economy» in which Norway has participated since the beginning in 2013.

It is difficult to distinguish the impact of the pandemic from the impact of infection control measures, self-regulation among households, and disruptions to foreign trade. This report attempts to shed light on the question by comparing the macroeconomic outcomes in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. The three Scandinavian countries chose different infection control strategies in 2020: While Norway and Denmark quickly introduced strict measures, Sweden chose a milder line.

In this report, we compare the wealth creation in a benchmark scenario for the period 2020–2023 as it appears at the time of writing – at the end of January 2022 – with Statistics Norway’s projections for the Norwegian economy published at the end of 2019, i.e. before the pandemic.

In the course of 2021, almost the entire decline in economic activity during the pandemic was recouped. Activity in November last year was close to what we regard as a trend level for the economy.

The Norwegian economy is starting to return to a normal level of activity following the further reopening of society. However, the war in Ukraine is significantly curbing the growth outlook for our trading partners in Europe, which in turn is having a negative impact on the Norwegian economy.

Activity in the Norwegian economy picked up considerably through the summer and autumn. As a result of lower infection rates, increased vaccination and the easing of national restrictions, mainland GDP had already rebounded by June to the same level as before the pandemic struck in March last year.

Mainland GDP has experienced substantial growth in recent months, and the economy is now approaching what we consider to be a normal level. Although the Omicron variant is creating uncertainty about further developments, we assume that its negative effect on the economy will be limited and temporary.

This report documents our calculations of how much of the deliveries to the petroleum industry are supplied by other domestic industries and how much is imported. We make a distinction between direct and indirect deliveries, and between their use for investments and for intermediate consumption of operations.

The reopening of society is well under way, and activity in the Norwegian economy has increased in recent months. After the first lockdown, mainland GDP fell by over 10 per cent from February to April last year, according to the monthly national accounts.

The reopening of society is well underway, and the upswing in the Norwegian economy continues. The COVID-19 pandemic will nevertheless continue to impact on the economy for a long time to come. The key policy rate is expected to increase gradually to 1.75 per cent in 2024.

Vaccination against COVID-19 has come a long way, and the re-opening of society will give a considerable boost to economic activity in Norway. Following the first lockdown in March 2020, mainland GDP fell by over10 per cent from February to April last year, according to the monthly national accounts.

The vaccination of the population is progressing well, and the reopening of society will give a significant boost to economic activity in Norway. The first interest rate hike will most likely be in September.

The spread of the COVID-19 virus and infection control measures continue to mark economic developments in Norway. The first lockdown in March 2020 led to mainland GDP falling by around 11 per cent from February to April last year, according to the monthly national accounts.