The prices Norwegian producers received for their goods decreased 3.5 per cent from October 2023 to October 2024, according to figures from the producer price index. The PPI measures price developments within extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply, both in terms of sales to the Norwegian market and abroad. In this article, we mainly look at price changes within manufacturing.

The producer price index (PPI) measures the price development that important parts of the Norwegian industry receive for their goods. Compared with the more well-known consumer price index (CPI), PPI measures price developments at an earlier point in the value chain. The CPI measures the price development that households pay for different goods, while the PPI measures prices "at the factory gate". Thus, PPI is an important indicator of the condition in the Norwegian industry. The index is used to analyse the Norwegian economy and can also be an indication of the development in the CPI.

The PPI measures the price development in extraction of oil and natural gas, manufacturing, water- and electricity supply and for certain services, including services related to oil and gas extraction. Prices are measured on goods sold in the first stage of sales from the producer to the Norwegian market (domestic market), in addition to the foreign market (export market).

Diminishing price growth within the manufacturing industries

Prices within the manufacturing industry rose 3.7 per cent from October 2023 to October 2024. However, compared to the twelve-moth rate from September, which stood at 5.2 per cent, the pace of price growth is slowing.We saw a slower growth rate within both the domestic and export market. 

The price growth was lower in several manufacturing industries in October compared to the same month last year. This was mainly due to basic chemicals and refined petroleum products, but also food prices have been lower in October.

– Even though manufacturing prices continues to rise, it is doing so more slower than a year ago. The price growth declined the most for exported industry goods, says Espen Kristiansen, head of section at Statistics Norway.

Figure 1. Producer price index. 12-month rate in total manufacturing, domestic and export market, from 2021-2024.

Significant price fall for petroleum products

Prices for refined petroleum products decreased by closely 16 per cent form October 2023 to October 2024. Falling prices for petrol products was also the case in September, when the twelve-month rate stood at -8 per cent. We must go back to August 2023 to find a more significant fall in the twelve-month rate than we observed this October.

The large price fall for refined petroleum products in October can be explained by the decreasing crude oil prices we observed in August and September this year. The prices for refined petroleum products often follow the price development of crude oil, often with a slight time lag.

Figure 2. Producer price index. 12-month rate for refined petroleum products, from 2021-2024.

Decreasing price growth for foods during the last twelve months

Through much of 2022 and 2023, the twelve-month rate within the food industry in the domestic market was around 20 per cent. Since then, inflation has fallen sharply, and during 2024, the twelve-month rate has been between 2 and 4 per cent. And October this year is no exception with a twelve-month rate of 3.7 per cent. This rate is however also diminishing.

The increased prices for foods sold in the domestic market during 2022 and 2023 can partially be explained by the decreasing prices of fish. During 2024 the fish prices have stabilized at a high level.

The prices for exported fish have however not stabilized, they instead continue to rise. From January to October the prices increased 13 per cent, however fish sold in the domestic market only increased by 3 per cent during the same period.

Figure 3. Producer price index. 12-month rate for fish products, domestic and export market, from 2021-2024.