Articles for economic trends

Articles, analysis, and publications

Increased purchasing power for households boosts the Norwegian economy Article 13 December
Wage and income growth will be sustained by strong profitability in the wage-leading tradable sector, stimulating household consumption. Lower price growth and interest rate cuts will also increase consumption.
Highest real wage growth in over ten years Article 13 September
Strong profitability in the industrial sector and declining inflation are already leading to high real wage growth in 2024. The interest rate is most likely to be lowered from early 2025.
The economic standstill in Norway will end soon Article 14 June
Going forward, activity in the Norwegian economy is expected to pick up, while inflation will continue to fall. Lower inflation and reduced interest rates among our trading partners will eventually lead to key policy rate cuts in Norway.
Real wage growth expected in 2024 Article 15 March
Increased profitability in certain industries will stimulate real wage growth in the years ahead. The increased purchasing power will pull Norway out of the economic downturn in 2026.

Interest rate cuts next year due to abrupt halt in house building Article 8 December
Higher interest rates and increased costs for housing developers have curbed housing investment, which will lead to reduced economic growth in Norway.
Prospects of lower inflation Article 8 September
Inflation is on the way down, and interest rates are set to peak soon. However, households’ real disposable income has weakened, and it appears that next year the interest burden will reach its highest level since the 1990s.
Weak krone means another year of real wage decline Article 9 June
The unusually weak krone lately means that it will be some time before the target inflation rate is reached. The consequence is likely to be another year of real wage decline and two more interest rate hikes.
Norwegian economy facing turning point Article 10 March
Growth in economic activity will be slightly lower, unemployment is likely to increase and inflation will see a rapid decline in 2023.

3% interest peak in the New Year Article 9 December
The Norwegian economy is characterised by low unemployment, high consumer price growth, falling house prices and rising interest rates. In the short term, a moderate decline in the economy is expected, but mainland GDP is nevertheless expected to remain cyclically neutral in the next few years.
High inflation leads to downturn in Norwegian economy Article 9 September
Widespread price growth, increased interest rates and weaker growth prospects internationally will lead to an economic downturn in Norway in the next few years. However, the key policy rate will rise by a further 1 percentage point this year in an attempt to curb the high inflation.
High inflation and higher interest rates set to curb growth in the Norwegian economy Article 10 June
Norway is heading towards an economic boom. Meanwhile, inflation is at a record high. A rapid rise in interest rates can therefore be expected in the period ahead. Combined with reduced prospects globally, this will slow economic growth in Norway.
Ukraine war creating uncertainty in growing Norwegian economy Article 18 March
The Norwegian economy is starting to return to a normal level of activity following the further reopening of society. However, the war in Ukraine is significantly curbing the growth outlook for our trading partners in Europe, which in turn is having a negative impact on the Norwegian economy.

Omicron creating uncertainty for the Norwegian economy Article 3 December
Mainland GDP has experienced substantial growth in recent months, and the economy is now approaching what we consider to be a normal level. Although the Omicron variant is creating uncertainty about further developments, we assume that its negative effect on the economy will be limited and temporary.
The economy is improving, but the crisis is not over Article 3 September
The reopening of society is well underway, and the upswing in the Norwegian economy continues. The COVID-19 pandemic will nevertheless continue to impact on the economy for a long time to come. The key policy rate is expected to increase gradually to 1.75 per cent in 2024.
Normalisation of the Norwegian economy on the horizon Article 4 June
The vaccination of the population is progressing well, and the reopening of society will give a significant boost to economic activity in Norway. The first interest rate hike will most likely be in September.