Regional population projections
Updated: 5 June 2024
Modified: 13 September 2024
Next update: Not yet determined
| 2024 | 2050 | Change in per cent | Change in number of persons | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Østfold | 312 152 | 355 556 | 13.9 | 43 404 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Akershus | 728 803 | 874 159 | 19.9 | 145 356 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oslo | 717 710 | 817 225 | 13.9 | 99 515 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Innlandet | 376 304 | 395 404 | 5.1 | 19 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Buskerud | 269 819 | 304 611 | 12.9 | 34 792 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vestfold | 256 432 | 286 521 | 11.7 | 30 089 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Telemark | 177 093 | 185 686 | 4.9 | 8 593 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Agder | 319 850 | 358 010 | 11.9 | 38 160 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rogaland | 499 417 | 543 550 | 8.8 | 44 133 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vestland | 651 299 | 691 788 | 6.2 | 40 489 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Møre og Romsdal | 270 624 | 279 339 | 3.2 | 8 715 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Trøndelag - Trööndelage | 482 956 | 529 458 | 9.6 | 46 502 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Nordland - Nordlánnda | 243 081 | 241 234 | -0.8 | -1 847 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Troms - Romsa - Tromssa | 169 610 | 175 548 | 3.5 | 5 938 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Finnmark - Finnmárku - Finmarkku | 75 053 | 76 810 | 2.3 | 1 757 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The numbers for Haram og Ålesund municipality were corrected on the 13th of September 2024. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
More figures from this statistics
- 14288: Population projections 1 January, by sex and age, in 9 alternatives (M) 2024 - 2050
- 14289: Projected numbers of births and deaths, net immigration and domestic net migration, in 9 alternatives (M) 2024 - 2050
- 14290: Projected probability of death (per 1000), by sex and age, in 3 alternatives (M) 2024 - 2050
- 14291: Projected total fertility rate and age-specific fertility rates for women (per 1000), in 3 alternatives (M) 2024 - 2050
- 14292: Projected life expectancy at birth for men and women, in 3 alternatives (M) 2024 - 2050
About the statistics
Regional population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fertility, mortality, internal migration, immigration and emigration. Read about results, methods and assumptions in the relevant report (in Norwegian).
The information under «About the statistics» was last updated 4 July 2022.
A population projection is an estimate of the future size and composition of a population, typically given certain assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy, domestic migration, immigration and emigration.
To demonstrate that population projections are uncertain, Statistics Norway publishes several projection alternatives. The MMMM alternative which assumes the medium level for each component is what we assume to be most plausible at the time of projection.
The variables and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections' report.
Name: Regional population projections
Topic: Population
Research department, Unit for Public Economics and Demographic Models
The lowest regional levels for the population projections are municipalities.
The population projections are published biennially.
The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. The results from the projections are stored in the StatBank at Statistics Norway and as separate files. Aggregated data may be downloaded electronically from the StatBank.
The population projections aim at informing planning and public debate on population issues.
SSB has produced population projections regularly since the 1950s. Previous population projections can be found here, and in the StatBank.
The most important users of Statistics Norway's population projections are public and private planning bodies at the municipal, county and central government levels, as well as journalists, researchers, politicians and the general public.
To project the population, assumptions are needed on future fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration. After the assumptions are made, the Norwegian population is projected using the cohort component models BEFREG.
The methods used are further described in the projections' report.
The population projections utilize aggregated individual level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. We use data categorized by age, sex and place of residence for 1 January each year, in addition to figures on births, deaths, domestic migration, immigration and emigration by age, sex and municipality/city district.
No samples are used. The projections utilize the whole population in estimations.
The methods used in the population projections are further described in the projections' report.
See the projections' report.
The regional population projections are not directly comparable across publications because of changes in methodology and regional borders.
There is a marked uncertainty about whether the assumptions used in making the population projections will accurately reflect future demographic trends. Over the past decade, future immigration has proven to be the most difficult component to project. This is also likely to be the case in the years ahead. Fertility, mortality and internal migration can also be very different from what was projected.
Models are simplifications of reality, and as such may only capture a few key mechanisms. This means that there are a multitude of other conditions that will affect population development which are not considered.
Errors in the population statistics system are usually modest in Norway and play a minor role in the projections
In summary, the uncertainty increases with time.
- Befolkningsframskrivinger for kommunene, 2020-2050
- Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic rates - An application using Norwegian registry data. Documents (2020/03)
- Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variation
Analyses, articles and publications
Article / 5 June 2024Municipal population projections 2024The backdrop for this year’s population projections for Norwegian municipalities is substantial immigration, particularly from Ukraine. In the main scenario, the projections show especially strong population growth in the short term, but also growth in the longer term.
Document / 6 February 2020Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic ratesLocal governments and businesses rely on regional population projections to make informed planning and policy decisions. A prerequisite for producing reliable regional projections is access to high quality demographic rates, also for small populations.
Discussion paper / 28 April 2021Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variationReliable local demographic schedules are in high demand, but small area problems pose a challenge to estimation. The literature has directed little attention to the opportunities created by increased availability of high-quality geo-coded data.
Contact
Henvendelser om regionale framskrivinger